Duke will host Virginia Tech Saturday in ACC college football action. Duke is currently favored by -9.5 points with a total of 49. Neither team will factor into the ACC title picture with Duke at 3-2 in conference play and the Hokies at 1-5.
Since this series resumed in 2004 it’s been all Virginia Tech. They are 15-3 since then with an average score of 31-17. They blasted Duke last year 48-17 and have won 5 of the last 6 games.
Here’s a look at their head to head history.
11/13/2021 Duke 17 +11.5 at Virginia Tech 48 10/ 3/2020 Virginia Tech 38 -12.0 at Duke 31 9/27/2019 Duke 45 + 2.5 at Virginia Tech 10 9/29/2018 Virginia Tech 31 + 6.5 at Duke 14 10/28/2017 Duke 3 +17.0 at Virginia Tech 24 11/ 5/2016 Virginia Tech 24 -13.0 at Duke 21 10/24/2015 Duke 45 + 3.0 at Virginia Tech 43 11/15/2014 Virginia Tech 17 + 4.0 at Duke 16 10/26/2013 Duke 13 +13.5 at Virginia Tech 10 10/13/2012 Duke 20 +10.0 at Virginia Tech 41 10/29/2011 Virginia Tech 14 -15.0 at Duke 10 10/23/2010 Duke 7 +27.0 at Virginia Tech 44 10/ 3/2009 Virginia Tech 34 -17.0 at Duke 26 11/22/2008 Duke 3 +17.0 at Virginia Tech 14 10/13/2007 Virginia Tech 43 -14.0 at Duke 14 9/16/2006 Duke 0 +34.5 at Virginia Tech 36 9/10/2005 Virginia Tech 45 -21.0 at Duke 0 9/18/2004 Duke 17 +25.0 at Virginia Tech 41 average outcome: Virginia Tech 30.9 Duke 16.8 margin = -14.17 time-weighted average outcome: Virginia Tech 30.8 Duke 23.7 margin = -7.05 average result when the home team is Duke Virginia Tech 30.8 Duke 16.5 margin = -14.25 average result when the home team is Virginia Tech Duke 17.0 Virginia Tech 31.1 margin = 14.10 44.44 % of games went Over 37.50 % went Over at Duke average total points per game = 47.72 time-weighted average total = 54.49 the home team covered 50.00 % of the time the road team covered 50.00 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -2.92 the favorite covered 38.89 % of the time the underdog covered 61.11 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -2.47 the favorite won SU 72.22 % of the time Virginia Tech covered 50.00 % of the time Duke covered 50.00 % of the time Duke covered 50.00 % of the time at home Duke covered 0.00 % of the time as home favorites
We often refer to rushing yards per attempt differential and admit to sounding like a broken record at times. But it’s a crucial, telling stat worth pointing out. Football is a game of yardage. Move the ball and stop your opponent from moving the ball and you’ll likely win. Pretty simple.
In this matchup Dukes differential is +1.8 for the year which ranks them 9th best of all teams in action this weekend. Virginia Tech’s differential is -1 which ranks them 102nd of all teams in action this weekend. 9th vs. 102nd.
There’s other numbers we can point out that will tell us the same thing. Duke is simply the better football team here. Our model agrees predicting a Duke win by anywhere from 11 to 18 points.
Of course the added motivation of revenge also comes into play here. Duke was hammered by Tech last year and in general over the last 18 years. If the opportunity exists for the Blue Devils to win with an exclamation point you better believe they’ll do so. What goes around comes around.
Lastly, Duke has an opportunity at 9 wins this year. 9 wins gets them a better bowl game than the 6 wins they currently have. Duke has a good team this year and their remaining two games against Pitt and Wake Forest are certainly winnable. But of their three remaining games, this one should be the most winnable and potentially the largest margin.