Virginia Tech at Duke CFB Pick ATS – 11-12

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virginia tech at duke pick
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Duke will host Virginia Tech Saturday in ACC college football action. Duke is currently favored by -9.5 points with a total of 49. Neither team will factor into the ACC title picture with Duke at 3-2 in conference play and the Hokies at 1-5.

Since this series resumed in 2004 it’s been all Virginia Tech. They are 15-3 since then with an average score of 31-17. They blasted Duke last year 48-17 and have won 5 of the last 6 games.

Here’s a look at their head to head history.

11/13/2021  Duke                     17  +11.5  at Virginia Tech            48
10/ 3/2020  Virginia Tech            38  -12.0  at Duke                     31
 9/27/2019  Duke                     45  + 2.5  at Virginia Tech            10
 9/29/2018  Virginia Tech            31  + 6.5  at Duke                     14
10/28/2017  Duke                      3  +17.0  at Virginia Tech            24
11/ 5/2016  Virginia Tech            24  -13.0  at Duke                     21
10/24/2015  Duke                     45  + 3.0  at Virginia Tech            43
11/15/2014  Virginia Tech            17  + 4.0  at Duke                     16
10/26/2013  Duke                     13  +13.5  at Virginia Tech            10
10/13/2012  Duke                     20  +10.0  at Virginia Tech            41
10/29/2011  Virginia Tech            14  -15.0  at Duke                     10
10/23/2010  Duke                      7  +27.0  at Virginia Tech            44
10/ 3/2009  Virginia Tech            34  -17.0  at Duke                     26
11/22/2008  Duke                      3  +17.0  at Virginia Tech            14
10/13/2007  Virginia Tech            43  -14.0  at Duke                     14
 9/16/2006  Duke                      0  +34.5  at Virginia Tech            36
 9/10/2005  Virginia Tech            45  -21.0  at Duke                      0
 9/18/2004  Duke                     17  +25.0  at Virginia Tech            41
  
   average outcome:
     Virginia Tech           30.9  Duke                    16.8
     margin = -14.17
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Virginia Tech           30.8  Duke                    23.7
     margin =  -7.05
  
   average result when the home team is Duke                   
     Virginia Tech           30.8  Duke                    16.5
     margin = -14.25
  
   average result when the home team is Virginia Tech          
     Duke                    17.0  Virginia Tech           31.1
     margin =  14.10
  
    44.44 % of games went Over
    37.50 % went Over at Duke                   
  
   average total points per game =  47.72
   time-weighted average total   =  54.49
  
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.92
  
   the favorite  covered  38.89 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  61.11 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.47
  
   the favorite won SU    72.22 % of the time
  
   Virginia Tech           covered  50.00 % of the time
   Duke                    covered  50.00 % of the time
  
   Duke                    covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Duke                    covered   0.00 % of the time as home favorites

We often refer to rushing yards per attempt differential and admit to sounding like a broken record at times. But it’s a crucial, telling stat worth pointing out. Football is a game of yardage. Move the ball and stop your opponent from moving the ball and you’ll likely win. Pretty simple.

In this matchup Dukes differential is +1.8 for the year which ranks them 9th best of all teams in action this weekend. Virginia Tech’s differential is -1 which ranks them 102nd of all teams in action this weekend. 9th vs. 102nd.

There’s other numbers we can point out that will tell us the same thing. Duke is simply the better football team here. Our model agrees predicting a Duke win by anywhere from 11 to 18 points.

Of course the added motivation of revenge also comes into play here. Duke was hammered by Tech last year and in general over the last 18 years. If the opportunity exists for the Blue Devils to win with an exclamation point you better believe they’ll do so. What goes around comes around.

Lastly, Duke has an opportunity at 9 wins this year. 9 wins gets them a better bowl game than the 6 wins they currently have. Duke has a good team this year and their remaining two games against Pitt and Wake Forest are certainly winnable. But of their three remaining games, this one should be the most winnable and potentially the largest margin.

Duke -9.5