West Virginia hosts Oklahoma this Saturday with the Sooners currently posted as -8 point favorites with a total of 67. The total opened at 64 and early bettors obviously felt that was too low, pushing the number as high as 68.
It’s safe to say both programs have seen better days. Especially the Sooners. Oklahoma sits at 5-4 overall and 2-5 in the Big 12. The Mountaineers sit at 1-5 in conference play and 3-5 overall.
Technically both teams are alive for a bowl game but West Virginia would have to sweep their remaining 3 games to get there. The Sooners need just one more win and with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech on deck, this may be the game they’re pointing towards to get them over the top.
The Sooners have won 9 straight in this series though 2 of the last 3 have been by 3 points. Here’s their head to head history.
Head to Head History
9/25/2021 West Virginia 13 +18.0 at Oklahoma 16
10/19/2019 West Virginia 14 +32.5 at Oklahoma 52
11/23/2018 Oklahoma 59 - 3.0 at West Virginia 56
11/25/2017 West Virginia 31 +22.5 at Oklahoma 59
11/19/2016 Oklahoma 56 - 3.5 at West Virginia 28
10/ 3/2015 West Virginia 24 + 6.5 at Oklahoma 44
9/20/2014 Oklahoma 45 - 7.5 at West Virginia 33
9/ 7/2013 West Virginia 7 +21.0 at Oklahoma 16
11/17/2012 Oklahoma 50 -11.5 at West Virginia 49
1/ 2/2008 West Virginia 48 + 6.0 vs Oklahoma 28
average outcome:
Oklahoma 42.5 West Virginia 30.3
margin = -12.20
time-weighted average outcome:
Oklahoma 43.7 West Virginia 26.1
margin = -17.58
average result when the home team is West Virginia
Oklahoma 52.5 West Virginia 41.5
margin = -11.00
average result when the home team is Oklahoma
West Virginia 17.8 Oklahoma 37.4
margin = 19.60
80.00 % of games went Over
100.00 % went Over at West Virginia
average total points per game = 72.80
time-weighted average total = 69.88
the home team covered 50.00 % of the time
the road team covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -5.88
the favorite covered 55.56 % of the time
the underdog covered 44.44 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.11
the favorite won SU 90.00 % of the time
Oklahoma covered 55.56 % of the time
West Virginia covered 44.44 % of the time
West Virginia covered 33.33 % of the time at home
West Virginia covered 33.33 % of the time as home underdogs
Our Pick
The problem with West Virginia this year is their defense. Or a lack of one might be a better way to put it. The Mountaineers yards per point number on defense is 11.8. That ranks them 121st defensively out of the 130 teams in action this weekend. Going up against the Sooners offense could be game, set and match for West Virginia.
But where West Virginia doesn’t lack is on the offensive side of the ball. That’s encouraging because pretty much any team Oklahoma faced with a decent offense has put plenty of points on the board.
Look at West Virginia’s games against Pitt, Kansas, Texas, Baylor and TCU. They beat Baylor and the Kansas game went to OT. The other games were competitive. They put plenty of points on the board in those game and were in every one with the exception of the Texas game which they lost 38-20. (Sooners lost 49-0 to Texas).
This isn’t a very good Oklahoma team. Our model has this game dead even with 74 points being scored. In other words, a back and forth shootout that lights up the scoreboard.
No reason West Virginia can’t win straight up or at the very least cover as a sizeable home dog.