Oklahoma at West Virginia CFB Pick – 11-12

oklahoma at wva pick
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West Virginia hosts Oklahoma this Saturday with the Sooners currently posted as -8 point favorites with a total of 67. The total opened at 64 and early bettors obviously felt that was too low, pushing the number as high as 68.

It’s safe to say both programs have seen better days. Especially the Sooners. Oklahoma sits at 5-4 overall and 2-5 in the Big 12. The Mountaineers sit at 1-5 in conference play and 3-5 overall.

Technically both teams are alive for a bowl game but West Virginia would have to sweep their remaining 3 games to get there. The Sooners need just one more win and with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech on deck, this may be the game they’re pointing towards to get them over the top.

The Sooners have won 9 straight in this series though 2 of the last 3 have been by 3 points. Here’s their head to head history.

Head to Head History

 9/25/2021  West Virginia            13  +18.0  at Oklahoma                 16
10/19/2019  West Virginia            14  +32.5  at Oklahoma                 52
11/23/2018  Oklahoma                 59  - 3.0  at West Virginia            56
11/25/2017  West Virginia            31  +22.5  at Oklahoma                 59
11/19/2016  Oklahoma                 56  - 3.5  at West Virginia            28
10/ 3/2015  West Virginia            24  + 6.5  at Oklahoma                 44
 9/20/2014  Oklahoma                 45  - 7.5  at West Virginia            33
 9/ 7/2013  West Virginia             7  +21.0  at Oklahoma                 16
11/17/2012  Oklahoma                 50  -11.5  at West Virginia            49
 1/ 2/2008  West Virginia            48  + 6.0  vs Oklahoma                 28
   average outcome:
     Oklahoma                42.5  West Virginia           30.3
     margin = -12.20
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Oklahoma                43.7  West Virginia           26.1
     margin = -17.58
   average result when the home team is West Virginia          
     Oklahoma                52.5  West Virginia           41.5
     margin = -11.00
   average result when the home team is Oklahoma               
     West Virginia           17.8  Oklahoma                37.4
     margin =  19.60
    80.00 % of games went Over
   100.00 % went Over at West Virginia          
   average total points per game =  72.80
   time-weighted average total   =  69.88
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -5.88
   the favorite  covered  55.56 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  44.44 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.11
   the favorite won SU    90.00 % of the time
   Oklahoma                covered  55.56 % of the time
   West Virginia           covered  44.44 % of the time
   West Virginia           covered  33.33 % of the time at home
   West Virginia           covered  33.33 % of the time as home underdogs

Our Pick

The problem with West Virginia this year is their defense. Or a lack of one might be a better way to put it. The Mountaineers yards per point number on defense is 11.8. That ranks them 121st  defensively out of the 130 teams in action this weekend. Going up against the Sooners offense could be game, set and match for West Virginia.

But where West Virginia doesn’t lack is on the offensive side of the ball. That’s encouraging because pretty much any team Oklahoma faced with a decent offense has put plenty of points on the board.

Look at West Virginia’s games against Pitt, Kansas, Texas, Baylor and TCU. They beat Baylor and the Kansas game went to OT. The other games were competitive. They put plenty of points on the board in those game and were in every one with the exception of the Texas game which they lost 38-20. (Sooners lost 49-0 to Texas).

This isn’t a very good Oklahoma team. Our model has this game dead even with 74 points being scored. In other words, a back and forth shootout that lights up the scoreboard.

No reason West Virginia can’t win straight up or at the very least cover as a sizeable home dog.

West Virginia +8.5


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