Kentucky will host Florida in college football action this week with the unranked Wildcats looking to stay unbeaten (4-0). The Gators come in ranked #22 at 3-1 having won 3 in a row after an opening week loss to Utah. WAGERWEB has Kentucky favored by 1 with a total of 44.
This series has been dominated by Florida over the years however Kentucky has won the last two and 3 of the last 5. Here’s a look at the series history going back to 1990.
Head to Head
9/10/2022 Kentucky 26 + 6.0 at Florida 16
10/ 2/2021 Florida 13 - 7.0 at Kentucky 20
11/28/2020 Kentucky 10 +25.0 at Florida 34
9/14/2019 Florida 29 - 9.0 at Kentucky 21
9/ 8/2018 Kentucky 27 +13.5 at Florida 16
9/23/2017 Florida 28 - 2.5 at Kentucky 27
9/10/2016 Kentucky 7 +14.0 at Florida 45
9/19/2015 Florida 14 - 3.5 at Kentucky 9
9/13/2014 Kentucky 30 +18.5 at Florida 36
9/28/2013 Florida 24 -12.0 at Kentucky 7
9/22/2012 Kentucky 0 +23.5 at Florida 38
9/24/2011 Florida 48 -19.5 at Kentucky 10
9/25/2010 Kentucky 14 +14.0 at Florida 48
9/26/2009 Florida 41 -21.5 at Kentucky 7
10/25/2008 Kentucky 5 +25.0 at Florida 63
10/20/2007 Florida 45 - 4.5 at Kentucky 37
9/23/2006 Kentucky 7 +27.5 at Florida 26
9/24/2005 Florida 49 -23.0 at Kentucky 28
9/25/2004 Kentucky 3 +17.5 at Florida 20
9/27/2003 Florida 24 - 9.0 at Kentucky 21
9/28/2002 Kentucky 34 +22.5 at Florida 41
9/22/2001 Florida 44 -30.0 at Kentucky 10
9/23/2000 Kentucky 31 +22.0 at Florida 59
9/25/1999 Florida 38 -20.0 at Kentucky 10
9/26/1998 Kentucky 35 +21.0 at Florida 51
9/27/1997 Florida 55 -19.5 at Kentucky 28
9/28/1996 Kentucky 0 +36.0 at Florida 65
9/ 9/1995 Florida 42 -27.0 at Kentucky 7
9/10/1994 Kentucky 7 +24.5 at Florida 73
9/11/1993 Florida 24 -13.0 at Kentucky 20
9/12/1992 Kentucky 19 +23.5 at Florida 35
11/16/1991 Kentucky 26 +36.5 at Florida 35
11/17/1990 Florida 47 -22.0 at Kentucky 15
average outcome:
Florida 38.4 Kentucky 16.9
margin = -21.45
time-weighted average outcome:
Florida 24.4 Kentucky 19.8
margin = -4.52
average result when the home team is Kentucky
Florida 35.3 Kentucky 17.3
margin = -18.00
average result when the home team is Florida
Kentucky 16.5 Florida 41.2
margin = 24.71
47.62 % of games went Over
45.45 % went Over at Kentucky
(since 1999 )
average total points per game = 55.27
time-weighted average total = 44.19
the home team covered 39.39 % of the time
the road team covered 60.61 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.14
the favorite covered 51.52 % of the time
the underdog covered 48.48 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 2.86
the favorite won SU 90.91 % of the time
Florida covered 51.52 % of the time
Kentucky covered 48.48 % of the time
Kentucky covered 37.50 % of the time at home
Still Value With Gators?
This game is a classic case of if you snooze you lose. Kentucky opened up as a -3 point favorite at most sportsbooks both stateside and offshore. Early bettors grabbed the +3 with the Gators, perhaps sensing that Kentucky may be a paper tiger.
When you look at this game statistically you can certainly make a case for Kentucky. But when you take a step back and consider the teams Kentucky has compiled those stats against, you’d be right to be hesitant to back them.
Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt aren’t exactly college football powerhouses. While the Gators have also faced a couple of cream puffs, they also played Tennessee and Utah going 1-1 with the win coming against the Vols.
As much as it kills us to miss the +3 we think there’s still value here. In a game where we just have to pick a straight up winner, we’ll side with the battle tested Gators. There may also be some value going under this total.