Florida at Kentucky CFB Pick ATS 9-30

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florida vs. kentucky cfb pick ats
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Kentucky will host Florida in college football action this week with the unranked Wildcats looking to stay unbeaten (4-0). The Gators come in ranked #22 at 3-1 having won 3 in a row after an opening week loss to Utah. WAGERWEB has Kentucky favored by 1 with a total of 44.

This series has been dominated by Florida over the years however Kentucky has won the last two and 3 of the last 5. Here’s a look at the series history going back to 1990.

Head to Head

  
 9/10/2022  Kentucky                 26  + 6.0  at Florida                  16
10/ 2/2021  Florida                  13  - 7.0  at Kentucky                 20
11/28/2020  Kentucky                 10  +25.0  at Florida                  34
 9/14/2019  Florida                  29  - 9.0  at Kentucky                 21
 9/ 8/2018  Kentucky                 27  +13.5  at Florida                  16
 9/23/2017  Florida                  28  - 2.5  at Kentucky                 27
 9/10/2016  Kentucky                  7  +14.0  at Florida                  45
 9/19/2015  Florida                  14  - 3.5  at Kentucky                  9
 9/13/2014  Kentucky                 30  +18.5  at Florida                  36
 9/28/2013  Florida                  24  -12.0  at Kentucky                  7
 9/22/2012  Kentucky                  0  +23.5  at Florida                  38
 9/24/2011  Florida                  48  -19.5  at Kentucky                 10
 9/25/2010  Kentucky                 14  +14.0  at Florida                  48
 9/26/2009  Florida                  41  -21.5  at Kentucky                  7
10/25/2008  Kentucky                  5  +25.0  at Florida                  63
10/20/2007  Florida                  45  - 4.5  at Kentucky                 37
 9/23/2006  Kentucky                  7  +27.5  at Florida                  26
 9/24/2005  Florida                  49  -23.0  at Kentucky                 28
 9/25/2004  Kentucky                  3  +17.5  at Florida                  20
 9/27/2003  Florida                  24  - 9.0  at Kentucky                 21
 9/28/2002  Kentucky                 34  +22.5  at Florida                  41
 9/22/2001  Florida                  44  -30.0  at Kentucky                 10
 9/23/2000  Kentucky                 31  +22.0  at Florida                  59
 9/25/1999  Florida                  38  -20.0  at Kentucky                 10
 9/26/1998  Kentucky                 35  +21.0  at Florida                  51
 9/27/1997  Florida                  55  -19.5  at Kentucky                 28
 9/28/1996  Kentucky                  0  +36.0  at Florida                  65
 9/ 9/1995  Florida                  42  -27.0  at Kentucky                  7
 9/10/1994  Kentucky                  7  +24.5  at Florida                  73
 9/11/1993  Florida                  24  -13.0  at Kentucky                 20
 9/12/1992  Kentucky                 19  +23.5  at Florida                  35
11/16/1991  Kentucky                 26  +36.5  at Florida                  35
11/17/1990  Florida                  47  -22.0  at Kentucky                 15
  
   average outcome:
     Florida                 38.4  Kentucky                16.9
     margin = -21.45
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Florida                 24.4  Kentucky                19.8
     margin =  -4.52
  
   average result when the home team is Kentucky               
     Florida                 35.3  Kentucky                17.3
     margin = -18.00
  
   average result when the home team is Florida                
     Kentucky                16.5  Florida                 41.2
     margin =  24.71
  
    47.62 % of games went Over
    45.45 % went Over at Kentucky               
    (since        1999 )
  
   average total points per game =  55.27
   time-weighted average total   =  44.19
  
   the home team covered  39.39 % of the time
   the road team covered  60.61 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.14
  
   the favorite  covered  51.52 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  48.48 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.86
  
   the favorite won SU    90.91 % of the time
  
   Florida                 covered  51.52 % of the time
   Kentucky                covered  48.48 % of the time
  
   Kentucky                covered  37.50 % of the time at home

 

Still Value With Gators?

This game is a classic case of if you snooze you lose. Kentucky opened up as a -3 point favorite at most sportsbooks both stateside and offshore. Early bettors grabbed the +3 with the Gators, perhaps sensing that Kentucky may be a paper tiger.

When you look at this game statistically you can certainly make a case for Kentucky. But when you take a step back and consider the teams Kentucky has compiled those stats against, you’d be right to be hesitant to back them.

Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt aren’t exactly college football powerhouses. While the Gators have also faced a couple of cream puffs, they also played Tennessee and Utah going 1-1 with the win coming against the Vols.

As much as it kills us to miss the +3 we think there’s still value here. In a game where we just have to pick a straight up winner, we’ll side with the battle tested Gators. There may also be some value going under this total.

Florida +1

Florida/Kentucky UNDER 44.5

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