Iowa vs. Penn State Week 4 CFB Pick ATS – 9-23

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iowa vs. penn st pick
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In a Big 10 matchup between two 3-0 and top 25 teams seventh ranked Penn State plays host to 24thranked Iowa.

Penn State is a big 14.5-point favorite in this conference game with the total sitting at 40 points. The public has been backing the Nittany Lions, as they opened as a 14-point favorite and are at 14.5 as of Thursday afternoon at Wagerweb.

In their last game Iowa was at home and crushed Western Michigan 41-10 where they covered the 28.5-point spread and the total went Over. The Hawkeyes have covered the spread in their last two games after failing to do so in the opener.

Penn State was on the road in their last game picking up their first Big 10 win in a 30-13 win over Illinois. The total went Under and they covered the 14-point spread and have covered in all three games.

These teams have not met since the 2021 season where Iowa was at home and beat Penn State 23-20.

Defense Comes Through, Again

In the 41-10 win over Central Michigan Iowa was impressive on defense again and they rank tied for 18th in the nation only giving up an average of 12.3 ppg.

In the win over CMU the Hawkeyes outgained the Broncos 387 yards to 239 yards and rushed for 254 yards. Cade McNamara passed for 103 yards with two TD and two INT and Leshon Williams went big with 145 rushing yards.

The Hawkeyes do not have a big-time offense, as they only rank 122nd in the nation in passing yards per game and tied for 74th in rushing yards per game. Williams leads the team in rushing and he only had 19 rushing yards in the first two games before 145 in the last game.

Iowa will be up against a Penn State defense that ranks 64th in the nation in pass D and 36th in run D. The Nittany Lions have 10 sacks in three games and Iowa gave up four sacks in their last game.

The Turnovers Sure Help

Penn State forced five turnovers in their 30-13 win over Illinois in their last game. They only outgained the Fighting Illini 383 yards to 354 yards. but did not have any turnovers and rushed for 164 yards. Drew Allar passed for 208 yards with no TD and no INT, four PSU players had at least 37 rushing yards, and four players had at least 32 receiving yards.

On the season Penn State ranks 50th in the nation in passing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards per game.

Allar has four TD on the season with no picks and is playing behind a great offensive line that has only given up two sacks in three games. Kaytron Allen leads the Nittany Lions with 208 rushing yards with two TD and Nicholas Singleton has 154 yards and five TD.

On the defensive side of the ball Iowa ranks 21st in the nation against the pass and 38th against the run.

Trends

Penn State is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.

Iowa has an Under record of 3-0 in their last three road games.

Iowa 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.

 

Our Pick – Iowa +15

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