Ohio State will host Penn State Saturday in a game that kicks off at 12 noon est. The Buckeyes are favored by -5.5 at wagerweb sportsbook with a current posted total of 45.5 at betonline.
There aren’t many marquee matchups on this weeks college football card however this one stands out.
This one fits into the category of “are these two teams as good as their undefeated records suggest?” Of course this happens every year in college football due to the great number of cupcakes on the schedules of these top programs.
Of the two I guess Ohio State gets the nod for having been tested, knocking off Notre Dame a few weeks ago. But then, how good is Notre Dame? Penn State on the other hand is mostly untested.
On paper the game is dead even. Our model predicts an incredibly low scoring game with the Buckeyes squeaking out a 14-10 decision. We would doubt our model is correct here as we think there will be more points scored.
Historically, The Buckeyes are the way to go. Here’s a look at the head to head matchups going back to 1993.
head-to-head history (lined games): 10/29/2022 Ohio State 44 -15.5 at Penn State 31 10/30/2021 Penn State 24 +19.0 at Ohio State 33 10/31/2020 Ohio State 38 -12.0 at Penn State 25 11/23/2019 Penn State 17 +19.0 at Ohio State 28 9/29/2018 Ohio State 27 - 3.5 at Penn State 26 10/28/2017 Penn State 38 + 7.0 at Ohio State 39 10/22/2016 Ohio State 21 -19.5 at Penn State 24 10/17/2015 Penn State 10 +18.0 at Ohio State 38 10/25/2014 Ohio State 31 -14.0 at Penn State 24 10/26/2013 Penn State 14 +16.0 at Ohio State 63 10/27/2012 Ohio State 35 + 0.0 at Penn State 23 11/19/2011 Penn State 20 + 6.5 at Ohio State 14 11/13/2010 Penn State 14 +18.0 at Ohio State 38 11/ 7/2009 Ohio State 24 + 6.0 at Penn State 7 10/25/2008 Penn State 13 - 2.5 at Ohio State 6 10/27/2007 Ohio State 37 - 3.5 at Penn State 17 9/23/2006 Penn State 6 +17.0 at Ohio State 28 10/ 8/2005 Ohio State 10 - 3.0 at Penn State 17 10/30/2004 Penn State 10 + 5.5 at Ohio State 21 11/ 1/2003 Ohio State 21 - 7.5 at Penn State 20 10/26/2002 Penn State 7 + 4.5 at Ohio State 13 10/27/2001 Ohio State 27 - 8.0 at Penn State 29 9/23/2000 Penn State 6 +11.0 at Ohio State 45 10/16/1999 Ohio State 10 +11.5 at Penn State 23 10/ 3/1998 Penn State 9 +14.5 at Ohio State 28 10/11/1997 Ohio State 27 + 7.0 at Penn State 31 10/ 5/1996 Penn State 7 + 9.5 at Ohio State 38 10/ 7/1995 Ohio State 28 - 1.5 at Penn State 25 10/29/1994 Ohio State 14 +14.0 at Penn State 63 10/30/1993 Penn State 6 + 3.0 at Ohio State 24
As you can see above, had you backed the Buckeyes at home when they were favored you would have hit at a 71% clip since 1993.
But we’ve always been a sucker for quality underdogs. It’s been the bread and butter of our success for over 30 years. Why stop now?
We’ll win more of these than we’ll lose. Let’s hope this is one of the winners!