Penn State vs. Ohio State CFB Pick – 10-21

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penn state vs. ohio state pick ats
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Ohio State will host Penn State Saturday in a game that kicks off at 12 noon est. The Buckeyes are favored by -5.5 at wagerweb sportsbook with a current posted total of 45.5 at betonline.

There aren’t many marquee matchups on this weeks college football card however this one  stands out.

This one fits into the category of “are these two teams as good as their undefeated records suggest?” Of course this happens every year in college football due to the great number of cupcakes on the schedules of these top programs.

Of the two I guess Ohio State gets the nod for having been tested, knocking off Notre Dame a few weeks ago. But then, how good is Notre Dame? Penn State on the other hand is mostly untested.

On paper the game is dead even. Our model predicts an incredibly low scoring game with the Buckeyes squeaking out a 14-10 decision. We would doubt our model is correct here as we think there will be more points scored.

Historically, The Buckeyes are the way to go. Here’s a look at the head to head matchups going back to 1993.

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/29/2022  Ohio State               44  -15.5  at Penn State               31
10/30/2021  Penn State               24  +19.0  at Ohio State               33
10/31/2020  Ohio State               38  -12.0  at Penn State               25
11/23/2019  Penn State               17  +19.0  at Ohio State               28
 9/29/2018  Ohio State               27  - 3.5  at Penn State               26
10/28/2017  Penn State               38  + 7.0  at Ohio State               39
10/22/2016  Ohio State               21  -19.5  at Penn State               24
10/17/2015  Penn State               10  +18.0  at Ohio State               38
10/25/2014  Ohio State               31  -14.0  at Penn State               24
10/26/2013  Penn State               14  +16.0  at Ohio State               63
10/27/2012  Ohio State               35  + 0.0  at Penn State               23
11/19/2011  Penn State               20  + 6.5  at Ohio State               14
11/13/2010  Penn State               14  +18.0  at Ohio State               38
11/ 7/2009  Ohio State               24  + 6.0  at Penn State                7
10/25/2008  Penn State               13  - 2.5  at Ohio State                6
10/27/2007  Ohio State               37  - 3.5  at Penn State               17
 9/23/2006  Penn State                6  +17.0  at Ohio State               28
10/ 8/2005  Ohio State               10  - 3.0  at Penn State               17
10/30/2004  Penn State               10  + 5.5  at Ohio State               21
11/ 1/2003  Ohio State               21  - 7.5  at Penn State               20
10/26/2002  Penn State                7  + 4.5  at Ohio State               13
10/27/2001  Ohio State               27  - 8.0  at Penn State               29
 9/23/2000  Penn State                6  +11.0  at Ohio State               45
10/16/1999  Ohio State               10  +11.5  at Penn State               23
10/ 3/1998  Penn State                9  +14.5  at Ohio State               28
10/11/1997  Ohio State               27  + 7.0  at Penn State               31
10/ 5/1996  Penn State                7  + 9.5  at Ohio State               38
10/ 7/1995  Ohio State               28  - 1.5  at Penn State               25
10/29/1994  Ohio State               14  +14.0  at Penn State               63
10/30/1993  Penn State                6  + 3.0  at Ohio State               24

As you can see above, had you backed the Buckeyes at home when they were favored you would have hit at a 71% clip since 1993.

But we’ve always been a sucker for quality underdogs. It’s been the bread and butter of our success for over 30 years. Why stop now?

We’ll win more of these than we’ll lose. Let’s hope this is one of the winners!

 

Penn State +5.5

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