Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints – Week 7 NFL Pick

Jags vs. Saints Pick
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In a Thursday night primetime non-conference clash, the Saints play host to the Jaguars.

The oddsmakers have the hometown Saints as the favorite posted at -3 with a low total of 39. The public has bet this game even and as of Tuesday the line has not moved.

The Jaguars won their third in a row in their last game, moving to 4-2, with a 37-20 home win over the Indianapolis Colts. Jax covered the spread as a 4-point favorite and they have covered in their last three games.

The Saints fell to 3-3 in their last game with a 20-13 road loss to the Houston Texans. New Orleans failed to cover as a 2-point favorite and have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

After a promising start to the season winning their first two games the Saints have dropped three of their last four games.

Turnovers and Run Defense Key

In the win over the Colts in their last game the Jags were outgained 354 yards to 233 yards, but they forced four turnovers and only committed one and only gave up 44 rushing yards.

Trevor Laurence passed for 181 yards with two TD and an INT in the Indy win, Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 55 yards only averaging 3.1 yards per carry and Christian Kirk led the way with 49 receiving yards and a TD.

After only totaling 26 points in two losses the Jags’ offense has heated up in the last three games averaging 28.3 ppg. They rank a legit 10th in the NFL in ppg (23.7 ppg) and have balance ranking 12th in passing yards per game and 15th in rushing yards per game.

Laurence (1,439 yards 7 TD 3 INT) has been pretty good this season and ranks 15th in QBR but many thought he would step up this campaign and be a star. He has a knee injury but should go and on the other side of the ball the Jax secondary has injury issues.

The Saints’ defense has not been the problem this season, as they rank sixth in points allowed (16 ppg), fifth in pass D, and ninth in run D.

Mistakes Costs the Saints

In their 20-13 loss to the Texans in their last game the Saints, had two turnovers, were 0-3 in the Red Zone, and missed two field goals. They outgained the Texans by a wide margin (430 yards to 297 yards) but the mistakes killed them in the Lone Star State.

In the loss to Houston Derek Carr passed for 353 yards with a TD and a pick, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed combined for 181 receiving yards, and Alvin Kamara had 68 rushing yards.

The passing attack for New Orleans ranks in the middle of the pack but they only rank 24thin the NFL in scoring (18.2 ppg) and 23rd in rushing yards per game. In three games Kamara has 199 rushing yards, to go along with 86 receiving yards, but has averaged 3.6 yards per carry in the last two games.

Carr (1,299 yards 5 TD 3 INT) has been up and down and while he has some solid weapons, he only ranks 17th in QBR and five TD in six games will not cut it.

Carr will have a chance to do some damage facing a Jags’ team that ranks second to last in the league in pass defense. However, the Jax run game has been legit ranking third.

Betting Trends

The Jags are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.

The Jags are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.

The Jags are 0-5 ATS in their last five games facing the Saints.

Every game for this season for the Saints has gone Under.

The Saints are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Our Picks

Jags +2

Jax/No UNDER 40

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