Sun Devils and Cyclones Clash in Big 12 Championship Showdown with Playoff Berth on the Line
The Big 12 Championship game takes center stage this Saturday, December 7th, as the Iowa State Cyclones and Arizona State Sun Devils face off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Arizona State enters as a slight 2-point favorite with the total set at 51 (BetOnline). With a potential College Football Playoff berth hanging in the balance, the stakes couldn’t be higher for both teams.
This matchup pits two of the Big 12’s most resilient teams against each other. Arizona State, defying preseason expectations, has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, boasting a high-powered offense led by quarterback Trenton Bourguet and running back Cameron Skattebo. Iowa State, known for their gritty defense and disciplined play, has consistently found ways to win close games.
Arizona State’s Offensive Firepower:
The Sun Devils have been an offensive juggernaut this season, averaging over 35 points per game. Bourguet has emerged as a star quarterback, and Skattebo has been a workhorse in the backfield. Their ability to move the ball both through the air and on the ground will be a major challenge for the Cyclones’ defense.
Iowa State’s Defensive Prowess:
The Cyclones have built their success on a stingy defense that has consistently shut down opposing offenses. They’ll need to be at their best to contain Arizona State’s explosive attack. Iowa State’s ability to generate pressure on Bourguet and limit Skattebo’s impact will be crucial.
Key Matchups:
- Arizona State’s Offensive Line vs. Iowa State’s Defensive Front: Can the Sun Devils’ offensive line protect Bourguet and create running lanes for Skattebo against a formidable Cyclones defensive front?
- Iowa State’s Passing Game vs. Arizona State’s Secondary: Will Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht be able to make enough plays through the air to keep the Sun Devils’ defense honest?
- Turnover Battle: Which team can win the turnover battle and create extra scoring opportunities in what is expected to be a close game?
The X-Factor:
Special teams could play a significant role in this game. Both teams have strong special teams units, and a big play on a kickoff or punt return could swing the momentum.
Prediction:
This game is shaping up to be a classic Big 12 battle with two evenly matched teams. Arizona State’s offensive firepower gives them a slight edge, but Iowa State’s defense and ability to win close games cannot be overlooked.
We’ve seen some very similar results against common opponents with these two teams this year. In fact when we use full season data with our model, the model predicts a 24-22 Iowa State win.
But we also like to use more recent time frame parameters, Specifically data from the last 7 games and the last 4 games. That gives us a better picture of how teams are playing right now and discounts what happened early in the season.
When doing so for this game, the model predicts a 29-21 win for Arizona State using the last 7 games and a 26-17 Sun Devil win when using only 4 games of data.
We like Arizona State in this one.
Arizona State -2