Rematch in the Mountain West Championship: Boise State and UNLV Battle for Playoff Spot
UNLV and Boise State will clash in the Mountain West Championship game on Friday night, December 6th, with kickoff set for 8 pm EST. The Broncos enter as 4-point favorites (Betonline) with a total of 58. The stakes are incredibly high, as the winner likely secures an automatic berth in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. This rematch of an earlier season game, won by Boise State 29-24 with a late touchdown, promises to be a thrilling contest.
Both teams have had impressive seasons, beating common opponents by similar margins. However, Boise State’s narrow 3-point loss to #1 Oregon stands out as a testament to their ability to compete with the nation’s best. Revenge will be a powerful motivator for UNLV, who will be looking to avenge their earlier loss and punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Our model, using data from the entire season, predicts a close 34-29 Boise State victory. However, when we focus on data from the last 7 games, the margin increases to 29-21 in favor of the Broncos.
Boise State’s Quest for Back-to-Back Titles:
Boise State is aiming to win consecutive Mountain West championships for the first time in program history. They’ve been dominant at home, boasting an 11-game winning streak on the blue turf. Led by Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos have a potent rushing attack that could be the key to victory.
UNLV’s Remarkable Turnaround:
UNLV has emerged as one of the season’s surprise teams, overcoming early quarterback changes to become a legitimate playoff contender. Their defense has been particularly impressive, limiting Boise State’s explosive rushing attack in their previous meeting.
Key Matchups:
- Ashton Jeanty vs. UNLV’s Front Seven: Can UNLV’s defense contain Boise State’s star running back and prevent him from dictating the game?
- Hajj-Malik Williams vs. Boise’s Secondary: Will UNLV’s dual-threat quarterback be able to exploit Boise State’s vulnerability to big plays through the air?
- Coaching Battle: Can UNLV coach Barry Odom outscheme Boise State’s experienced staff and lead his team to an upset?
The Stakes:
This game is about more than just a conference title. It’s a chance for both teams to make history and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. A win for Boise State would likely secure a first-round bye, while UNLV could sneak in as the 12th seed with an upset victory.
Prediction:
One thing we should expect this weekend of championship action is upsets. No question a team or two will throw a monkey wrench into the mix of what the “experts” think will happen. Could that be the case here? We think so. Boise State has been all but guaranteed a playoff spot. But the same season revenge and the fact that UNLV knows they can compete here might be the difference.
We’re backing UNLV here plus the points in a game that will likely put the rest of the teams in action this weekend on alert.
UNLV +4