Michigan State vs. Iowa: Hawkeyes Look to Ground Spartans in East Lansing
This Saturday night, the Michigan State Spartans (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten) will host the Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) in a crucial Big Ten matchup at Spartan Stadium. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET.
Michigan State enters the game desperate for a win, having dropped their last three contests after a promising 3-0 start. The Spartans are coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for Iowa and lick their wounds after tough losses to Washington, Ohio State, and Oregon. However, they face a tough challenge in an Iowa team that’s quietly putting together a strong season.
The Hawkeyes arrive in East Lansing fresh off a dominant 40-16 victory over Washington. Iowa boasts a balanced attack, averaging 29.2 points per game with 134.7 passing yards and a whopping 222.8 rushing yards. Their ground game, ranked 12th nationally, will be a major focus against a Michigan State defense that has struggled against the run.
Here are some key factors to watch:
- Iowa’s Offensive Surge: Iowa’s offense, often criticized in the past, has shown significant improvement this season. Quarterback Cade McNamara has provided stability, and their rushing attack is a force to be reckoned with. If Iowa can establish the run early, they’ll look to control the clock and keep Michigan State’s offense off the field.
- Michigan State’s Run Defense: The Spartans need to find a way to contain Iowa’s rushing attack. If they can’t, it could be a long night for the home team. They’ll need to improve their tackling and gap discipline to slow down the Hawkeyes.
- Turnover Battle: Michigan State has been prone to turnovers this season, a trend they cannot afford to continue against an opportunistic Iowa defense. Protecting the ball will be crucial for the Spartans to stay competitive.
- Disciplined Football: Iowa is the least penalized team in the nation, a testament to their discipline and focus. Michigan State will need to match that discipline to avoid giving Iowa easy yards and scoring opportunities.
Historical Trends:
- Iowa has dominated recent meetings, winning the last two regular-season matchups by a combined score of 75-23.
- Iowa is 29-0 since 2020 when scoring at least 21 points, highlighting their ability to close out games when they get a lead.
Key Stats:
- Iowa ranks 9th in the nation in yards per rush attempt (+2 differential), while Michigan State ranks 73rd (-0.5 differential).
- Michigan State has one of the worst offensive yards per point ratios (20.9) among teams playing this weekend, compared to Iowa’s 12.2.
The Pick:
Iowa enters this game as a 5.5-point favorite (MyBookie), and it’s easy to see why. Their strong running game, disciplined play, and improved offense make them a tough matchup for a struggling Michigan State team. While the Spartans will be hungry for a win at home, Iowa’s consistency and ability to control the game should give them the edge.
Our model predicts a 23-13 Iowa victory, and we agree that the Hawkeyes are the smart pick in this matchup. Look for Iowa to cover the spread and improve their record to 5-2 on the season.
Iowa -5-5