SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: College Football Playoff Preview and Prediction

This Saturday, December 21st, the SMU Mustangs will travel to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the first round of the College Football Playoff. This matchup features two teams with impressive 11-2 records, but differing paths to the playoffs. The expanded CFP format has provided an opportunity for teams like Penn State, who previously struggled to break into the top four despite strong seasons, to finally compete for a national championship . SMU, in their first season in the ACC, secured a spot with an at-large bid after a narrow loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Penn State, meanwhile, earned their place after a strong Big Ten campaign that saw them fall short against Oregon in the conference championship. The winner of this game will advance to face the Boise State Broncos in the quarterfinals at the Fiesta Bowl.

Point Spread and Odds

The Nittany Lions enter this contest as the favorites, with the spread currently sitting at 8.5 points in their favor . The over/under for total points scored is set at 54 . Penn State’s moneyline odds are -326, while SMU’s are +257. This suggests that oddsmakers believe Penn State has a significant advantage playing at home in Beaver Stadium. Interestingly, SMU is getting 62% of the bets to cover the spread, while Penn State is receiving 38% of the wagers.  

Head-to-Head History

Historically, these two programs have only met twice before. The first encounter was in the 1948 Cotton Bowl, which ended in a 13-13 tie . The 1948 Cotton Bowl holds historical significance as it was the first bowl game to feature an interracial matchup , adding another layer of importance to this rivalry. Their second meeting took place in 1978, with Penn State emerging victorious with a 26-21 scoreline . While this limited history doesn’t offer much insight into the current matchup, it highlights the rarity of this clash between two storied programs. 

Team Statistics

Both SMU and Penn State boast potent offenses and solid defenses. Here’s a closer look at their season statistics:

Key players to watch in this matchup include SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings and Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. Jennings has a knack for making plays under pressure, while Allar has shown impressive accuracy and decision-making this season .

SMU’s offense relies heavily on their passing attack, led by quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns this season . SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings excels under pressure, ranking second in the FBS with a 156.4 passer efficiency rating when pressured . This could be a significant factor against a Penn State defense that generates pressure on 38.5% of opponent dropbacks. Their rushing game, while not as prolific, provides a solid complement to their aerial assault. Defensively, the Mustangs have been particularly strong against the run, ranking seventh in the nation. Furthermore, SMU has a remarkable 26-2 record under coach Rhett Lashlee when they score 30 or more points, showcasing their ability to dominate games when their offense is firing on all cylinders .  

Penn State, on the other hand, features a more balanced offensive approach. Quarterback Drew Allar has had a strong season, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns . Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has significantly improved his deep ball accuracy this season, with his passer efficiency on throws of 20+ yards jumping from 167.3 in 2023 to 257.0 this season . This could be a problem for an SMU defense that has shown vulnerability against deep passes. Their running game, led by Nicholas Singleton, has been a key factor in their success, averaging over 200 yards per game . Penn State tight end Tyler Warren could be a major factor in this game. He ranks third in the FBS in receptions and second in receiving yards among tight ends, while SMU’s defense has struggled against tight ends this season . Defensively, the Nittany Lions have been stingy, allowing just 13.5 points per game .

Recent News and Injury Reports

SMU enters this game with a 10-game road winning streak, the second-longest active streak in college football . They’ve been particularly impressive on the road, averaging 35 points per game during this streak . Despite their recent road success, SMU’s overall bowl game record is 7-11-1, and they haven’t won a bowl game since 2012 . They’ll be without several key players due to injuries, including wide receiver Jake Bailey, running back Jaylan Knighton, and tight end RJ Maryland .

Penn State, under coach James Franklin, holds a 6-6 record in bowl games . They will also be missing some contributors due to injuries. Offensive tackle Anthony Donkoh, tight end Andrew Rappleyea, and defensive end Zuriah Fisher are all ruled out for the game . They also have several players listed as questionable.

Our Pick

However, Penn State has several advantages in this matchup. They have a more balanced offense, with a capable quarterback in Drew Allar and a strong running game. They also have the home-field advantage, playing in front of their passionate fans at Beaver Stadium. Penn State has only lost to top 10 teams this season , showcasing their ability to compete with the best in the country.