Notre Dame Looks to Take Care of Business at Home Against Indiana in CFP First Round

This Friday night, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will host the Indiana Hoosiers in the first-ever on-campus College Football Playoff first-round matchup. The Hoosiers will make the short trip across the state to face Notre Dame in South Bend with a spot in the CFP quarterfinal on the line. The Hoosiers have been one of the best stories in college football this season and will look to pull off an upset against a historic program in Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have been dominant this season, but this will be their toughest test yet. Can they take care of business against their in-state rivals?  

Point Spread

There are a couple of 7.5’s out there but at most books Notre Dame is a -7 point favorite with a total of 51. 

Notre Dame and Indiana have met 29 times in their history, with the Fighting Irish holding a commanding 23-5-1 advantage. Indiana actually started the series with a 4-3-1 mark against Notre Dame between 1898 and 1907, but the Hoosiers have won just once in 21 meetings since. The last time they met on the gridiron was in 1991, a 49-27 Notre Dame victory.

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish enter this game with an 11-1 record, their only loss coming in Week 2 at home against Northern Illinois. They average 39.8 points per game (third in the country) and allow just 13.6 points per game (also third in the country). Notre Dame’s offense is balanced, averaging 196.4 passing yards and 224.8 rushing yards per game. Defensively, they allow just 157.9 passing yards and 138.8 rushing yards per game.  

Indiana

The Hoosiers enter this game with an 11-1 record. They average 47.5 points per game, which is good for third in the country. Indiana’s offense averages 265.2 passing yards and 173.6 rushing yards per game. They are particularly strong on third down, ranking sixth nationally in conversion rate (54%) and 26th in opponent conversion rate (31.6%). Defensively, Indiana ranks 14th in points allowed per game (14.8).

Our Pick

To be clear, There’s no question that Notre Dame is the better team in this matchup. At lease on paper. In fact, our model has the Irish on top by a score of 25-17, an 8 point gap, just about right at the current line. Using our model’s prediction, the only play here would be UNDER the total of 50 and the weather looks like it supports that as well as it will be in the 20’s Friday night.

Here’s a few more stats to consider.

Yards per rush attempt differential is a huge stat, especially in college ball. Run the ball well and stop the run well and you’ll win lot’s of football games. Notre Dames number of 2.6 is #1 in the nation in that category.

The Hoosiers are no slouch though as their number of 1.6 is good for #10.

The other two numbers above are the yards per point numbers. Notre Dames ypp on defense of 21.8 is #2 in the nation. Both teams offensive ypp numbers rank #1 and #2.

While Notre Dame appears to be the better team, sometimes you have to look past the stats to find a pointspread winner.

The Hoosiers are no doubt a “Live Dog”. They’ve had a fantastic season and with an offense like theirs you can never count them out.

The only time they stepped way up in class this season was their loss to Ohio State. So we have to ask, is Notre Dame as good as Ohio State? We don’t think so.

The Irish beat up on plenty of weak opponents this year and when they did play teams with a pulse, Louisville for example, the margins weren’t so big. Not to mention a home lloss to Northern Illinois.

This looks to be a great game that is likely decided late. We like our chances with the Hoosiers in this one as they get a chance to redeem themselves for the Ohio State loss and keep their season and title hopes alive.

Indiana +7.5