Steelers at Eagles: Pennsylvania Showdown Looms Large in Week 15

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles are set to clash in a highly anticipated Week 15 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field on December 15, 2024. This highly anticipated matchup, often referred to as the “Pennsylvania State Championship,” pits two division leaders against each other in a game with significant playoff implications for both sides.

The Eagles are favored by -5.5 with a total of 46.5. (betonline)

Current Season Performance

Steelers Performance

The Steelers enter this matchup with a 10-3-0 record, securing their position at the top of the AFC North. Their offense, under the leadership of quarterback Russell Wilson, has shown a propensity for passing, averaging 206 passing yards per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. However, they have also demonstrated a strong ground game, averaging 132.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 9th overall. Key offensive players include Najee Harris, who leads the team with 877 rushing yards, and George Pickens, the leading receiver with 850 yards.  

Defensively, the Steelers have been exceptional. They rank 5th in the league in points allowed per game and have the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Their ability to generate turnovers and limit opponents’ scoring opportunities has been a major factor in their success this season. T.J. Watt leads the defense with an impressive 9.5 sacks.  

Eagles Performance

The Eagles hold an 11-2-0 record, placing them firmly in first place in the NFC East. Their offensive strategy centers around a dominant rushing attack, which averages a league-leading 190.5 yards per game. Saquon Barkley has been a force in the run game, accumulating 1,623 rushing yards. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has efficiently managed the offense, throwing for 2,602 yards while minimizing turnovers. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith form a dynamic receiving duo, providing Hurts with reliable targets downfield. The Eagles also boast a 43.4% third-down conversion percentage, highlighting their offensive efficiency.  

On the defensive side, the Eagles have been particularly strong against the pass. Their secondary ranks 2nd in the league in EPA per pass allowed and is considered to be playing at its best in years. This presents a significant challenge for the Steelers’ passing offense.  

The contrasting offensive styles of these two teams create an intriguing matchup. The Steelers, with their pass-oriented attack led by Russell Wilson, will face a stern test against the Eagles’ formidable secondary. Conversely, the Eagles’ run-heavy offense, spearheaded by Saquon Barkley, will need to overcome the Steelers’ strong front seven and their ability to force turnovers.

Injury Concerns

While both teams have key players dealing with injuries, the Steelers face a potentially significant setback with the uncertain status of wide receiver George Pickens. Pickens suffered a hamstring injury in Week 14 and missed the Steelers’ previous game. He is currently listed as doubtful for the matchup against the Eagles. Pickens is a crucial part of the Steelers’ passing game, leading the team in receiving yards and serving as a primary deep threat for Russell Wilson. His absence would force the Steelers to rely more heavily on other receivers, potentially impacting their offensive efficiency.  

For the Eagles, safety Sydney Brown, who missed the previous game with a knee injury, has returned to practice. Safety Reed Blankenship is also recovering from a concussion and has resumed practice. While both players are expected to be available for the game, their health will be closely monitored. 

Game Prediction

Our model, when using data from the entire season, has the Eagles winning a 23-18 decision, which is right at the current number of -5.5. However, when using data from only the last 7 games for each team, that margin grows, with the model predicting a 30-19 Eagles win.

Another very important stat to consider is yards per play. Most times, the team with the better yards per play numbers ends up on the winning side. That’s especially true when the differnetial between the two teams is significant, as is the case for this game.

The Eagles are #3 in the NFL in yards per play differential at +1.1. The Steelers rank #19 in the NFL with a differential of -0.1.

We think the Eagles are going to be too much for the Steelers on Sunday. We’ll lay the -5 points here and we’ll also play this game to go over the current total of 43.

EAGLES -5
EAGLES/STEELERS OVER 43