Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: Week 15 Preview and Prediction
This Sunday, December 15th, 2024, the Buffalo Bills (10-3-0) will travel to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions (12-1-0) in a highly anticipated Week 15 matchup. Both teams have exceeded expectations this season, boasting high-powered offenses and establishing themselves as contenders for a deep playoff run. This game could be a potential Super Bowl preview, with two of the league’s best teams battling it out in a game with significant playoff implications.
The Lions are a -2.5 point favorite in this game with a total of 54.5. (betonline)
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been an offensive juggernaut this season, averaging 30.5 points per game, ranking them 2nd in the NFL . They entered the season with +1600 Super Bowl odds and an over/under win total of 10.0 , exceeding expectations thus far. The team is led by head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady . A key factor in their success has been their league-leading turnover differential (+17), demonstrating their ability to both protect the ball and create takeaways . They have also been efficient on third downs, converting at a 43.4% rate, good for 9th overall in the league .
Offense
The Bills’ offense is led by quarterback Josh Allen, who has been playing at an MVP level. Allen has thrown for 3,033 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, averaging 233.3 yards per game . He is also a threat on the ground, rushing for 416 yards and 9 touchdowns . His dynamic playmaking ability makes him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league.
Defense
Defensively, the Bills have been solid, allowing 20.6 points per game (8th in the NFL) . However, they have struggled against the run at times this season, which could be a concern against the Lions’ strong rushing attack.
Detroit Lions
The Lions have been the surprise team of the NFL this season, boasting a league-leading 12-1-0 record and the top-ranked scoring offense (32.1 points per game) . This impressive performance comes after a strong 2023 season. They entered the season with +1200 Super Bowl odds and an over/under win total of 10.5 , exceeding expectations thus far. In addition to their offensive prowess, the Lions have excelled in the punt return game, averaging a league-leading 13.5 yards per return .
Offense
Quarterback Jared Goff is having a resurgent season, throwing for 3,265 yards and 25 touchdowns . Goff has benefited from a strong offensive line and a talented group of skill players.
The Lions’ rushing attack is led by the dynamic duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs has rushed for 1,016 yards, while Montgomery has added 771 yards and 12 touchdowns . Their ability to run the ball effectively has been a key factor in the Lions’ success this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is Goff’s primary target in the passing game, with 863 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns . St. Brown is a versatile receiver who can line up all over the field and create mismatches against opposing defenses. Kicker Jake Bates has also been a significant contributor to the Lions’ scoring success, tallying 101 points this season .
Defense
Defensively, the Lions have been a bit of a weakness, allowing 29.5 points per game . They have struggled with injuries throughout the season, particularly on the defensive line.
Quarterback Comparison: Josh Allen vs. Jared Goff
While both the Bills and Lions have high-powered offenses, their quarterbacks have distinct playing styles. Josh Allen is known for his exceptional athleticism and ability to make plays outside of the pocket. He is a dual-threat quarterback who can hurt defenses with both his arm and his legs. Jared Goff, on the other hand, is a more traditional pocket passer who relies on his accuracy and decision-making. He has thrived in the Lions’ system, which emphasizes play-action passing and utilizes a strong running game to set up downfield throws. This matchup will feature a fascinating contrast in quarterback styles, with Allen’s explosiveness potentially challenging the Lions’ defense while Goff’s efficiency could test the Bills’ ability to contain a balanced attack.
Historically, the Bills hold a slight edge over the Lions in head-to-head matchups. The Bills have won seven games, the Lions have won four, and they have tied once . However, recent history favors the Bills more strongly. They have won the last four meetings between the two teams, including a 28-25 victory in Detroit last season . These recent matchups have generally been close and competitive, suggesting that this game could also come down to the wire.
Weather Conditions and Home-Field Advantage
The game will be played indoors at Ford Field, so weather will not be a factor during the game itself. However, the Bills were forced to cancel practice on Thursday due to a winter storm bearing down on the Buffalo area . The team met virtually instead, raising concerns about the potential impact of this disruption on their preparation for the game . Former Bills offensive lineman Jerry Ostroski suggested that this may not be a significant disadvantage, emphasizing the importance of mental reps at this point in the season .
Despite the Bills’ weather-related challenges, the Lions will still have the advantage of playing at home in front of their passionate fans. Ford Field is known for its loud and energetic atmosphere, which could give the Lions a boost and potentially disrupt the Bills’ offensive rhythm.
Prediction
This game is shaping up to be a close and exciting contest. Both teams have the potential to put up points, and the outcome could come down to the wire. The Lions’ strong running game and home-field advantage give them a slight edge, but the Bills’ explosive offense, led by Josh Allen, cannot be underestimated.
Our Model uses 3 different time frame parameters, full season, last 4 games and last 7 games. Here are those predictions.
Buffalo 54.5 21 Detroit -2.5 32 FULL SEASON DATA Buffalo 54.5 27 Detroit -2.5 32 LAST 4 GAMES DATA Buffalo 54.5 21 Detroit -2.5 33 LAST 7 GAMES DATA
As you can see, it’s an across the board sweep for our model with each prediction favoring a Lions win and cover.
We agree with our model. With the line -2.5 we’re basically just being asked to pick a winner. We think the Lions get this one at home but don’t be surprised if these teams meet again in February!
Lions -2.5