Army Hosts Tulane in AAC Championship Clash: Can the Black Knights Conquer the Green Wave?
Army will host Tulane for the AAC football championship on Friday, December 6th, 2024, in a battle of two of the conference’s top teams. Army boasts a stellar 10-1 record (8-0 in conference play), while Tulane enters at 9-3 overall and 7-1 in the AAC. However, questions linger about Army’s strength of schedule, with their only matchup against a top-tier opponent resulting in a lopsided loss to Notre Dame. Tulane, on the other hand, has faced tougher competition, with competitive losses to Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Memphis.
The Current line at Betonline has Tulane favored by 5 with a total of 46.
While common opponents paint a mixed picture, our model predicts a tight 23-20 Tulane victory. However, we believe Army’s dominant rushing attack and stout defense will be the difference-makers in the cold weather conditions expected at West Point Friday night.
The Case for Army:
Army’s triple-option offense has been a force this season, leading to a +1.8 yard per rush differential, good for 11th in the country. Combined with their stingy defense, the Black Knights have the tools to control the clock and limit Tulane’s offensive opportunities. The cold weather could further favor Army’s ground-and-pound style.
Tulane’s Championship Pedigree:
This marks Tulane’s third consecutive appearance in the AAC Championship game. They’ve proven their ability to win on the road, going undefeated away from home since their mid-September loss at Oklahoma. Their defense has been particularly impressive, ranking among the best in the conference against the run.
Key Matchups:
- Army’s Rushing Attack vs. Tulane’s Run Defense: This will be the defining battle. Can Tulane contain Army’s triple-option and force them into passing situations?
- Tulane’s Passing Game vs. Army’s Secondary: Can Tulane make enough plays through the air to keep Army’s defense honest?
- Turnover Battle: Which team can win the turnover battle and create extra scoring opportunities in what is expected to be a low-scoring game? Army +12 Turnover margin and Tulane +10. Both fantastic.
The X-Factor:
The weather could play a significant role in this game. Cold temperatures and potential wind could favor Army’s run-heavy approach and make it more difficult for Tulane to establish their passing game.
Prediction:
While our model favors Tulane, we believe Army’s rushing attack and home-field advantage will be enough to secure the AAC title. Expect a hard-fought, low-scoring battle, with the Black Knights ultimately prevailing in a close contest.
Our Pick Army +5