NFL Week 12 Picks against the Spread
Each week in the NFL we generally get one or two marquee Games. The NFL product has become so diluted over the last several years that we get a few elite teams mixed in with a ton of mediocrity. Some of these Games are tough to watch. Unfortunately for week 12, the marquee Games are on Thanksgiving day. You can read Our Lions/Packers and Ravens/49ers write ups on the home page. Let’s take a quick look at the rest of week 12.
11/24 – 11/26
Dolphins at Cowboys – the other Thanksgiving Day Game. The Dolphins are suddenly hot winning 3 in a row and in blow out fashion. They actually have better year to date yards per point numbers than the Cowboys! But we think that likely ends here. A weak call, but Cowboys -7.
Cardinals at Rams – Game currently off the board due to the Cards QB injuries. Hopefully it stays off the board. We’d take LSU over both of these teams!
Bills at Jets – The wheels have fallen off the Bills wagon and coiNCidentally, the first loss of their 3 Game skid came at home against these Jets, 27-11. Injuries and mistakes have taken their toll on the Bills. If we were to take year to date stats and handicap this Game, the Bills would be the play. Actually, we’re still going to back the Bills here as we can’t trust the Jets laying 9. Bills +9
Browns at Bengals – Two heartbreaking losses, each by a TD to division leaders Pittsburgh and Baltimore have really hurt the Bengals. The Bengals are a quality football team while the Browns are not. As long as Cinci hasn’t thrown in the towel this one should be there. Bengals -7
Texans at Jaguars – Talk about heartbreaking, the Texans have lost Matt SChaub for the year and now must go with Matt Leinart. That shouldn’t make a differeNCe this week. Last count there were 21 other players on the field on both sides of the ball that have helped the Texans to a 7-3 mark. Texans -3.5 and Under 37.5
Panthers at Colts – Another Game we’d prefer they take off the board. Really, who cares. Panthers will likely take it as the Colts drive for the 1st round pick continues. Panthers -3.5
Bucs at Titans – 3.5 is a small price to pay here. Bucs have lost 4 in a row while the Titans can compete with most NFL teams and still very much alive in the AFC South. Note that using yards per point to make a line here, the Titans would be favored by 9. Also note Our NFL model predicts a final of 24-14 Tennessee. Titans -3.5
Vikings at Falcons – It looked shaky for awhile but the Falcons have won 4 out of the last 5 Games to put themselves back into the playoff picture in the NFC South, one Game behind the Saints. Not crazy at laying -9 but will play the Falcons at anything less than -10. Falcons -9
Bears at Raiders – Another heartbreaker. The Bears lose Cutler for the year. On the plus side, as we were writing this it was annouNCed that Darren McFadden is OUT this week. We remind everyone that there are 21 other players on the field besides the QB. Losing Cutler hurts, but he’s not Brady or Manning. Don’t be surprised to see the Bears make a move for a QB with no job. Hey, how about Kyle Orton? Either way, Bears are a better team than the Raiders and +11 in turnovers can’t hurt either! Bears +4
Redskins at Seahawks – Skins have dropped 6 straight. Not about to try and pick the spot they break back into the win column. We’ll use the total here instead. We’ll call for this one to go Under 37.5
Broncos at Chargers – Chargers falling faster than the Bills. They’ve dropped 5 straight. -10 in turnover margin. Broncos have won 3 straight. Tebowmania. How can you not back them here? Broncos +6
Steelers at Chiefs – Not crazy about laying double digits with the Steelers but the Chiefs are falling fast. Steelers -10.5