11/13/11
Steelers at Bengals – Wrong team is favored here. Bengals getting no respect. An argument can be made that the Steelers have played a more difficult Schedule, but it’s not by much. They have also beaten some of the same lower class teams as the Bengals while failing against some good teams. A regular Key Release for us is a 3* play. We are playing Cinci as a 1* mainly because we’re a little worried about Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton against the Steelers defense. Bengals +3
Broncos at Chiefs – Chiefs came crashing down to earth last week losing 31-3 to Miami while the Broncos knocked off the Raiders. The AFC West is still wide open so obviously a huge Game for both teams. Broncos running an option like offense similar to what Tebow ran in college. The jury is still out on that. No strong opinion here but we’ll give the Broncos a shot. Broncos +3
Jags at Colts – Don’t like either side. How about under 37.5
Bills at Cowboys – Setback for the Bills last week losing to the Jets while the Cowboys got by Seattle as expected. Year to date it’s the Bills with the better numbers so we’ll gladly take any points available, which right now is 5.5. Bills +5.5
Texans at Bucs – Houston as disposed of Tampa-like teams the past few weeks. Teams that have little offensive puNCh, outscoring them 95-33. See no reason for that not to continue here. Texans -3.5
Titans at Panthers – Panthers in every Game but still a 2 win team that we don’t trust when laying points. Titans still alive at 4-4 and need this one badly. Yards per point live would have Titans favored so we’ll grab the points here. Titans +3.5
Redskins at Dolphins – This one should be a doozy. Can’t lay points with a 1-7 team. Neither team has much of an offense yet neither defense is bad. That has to mean take the dog and the under. Redskins +4 and Under 37.5
Saints at Falcons – Atlanta has won 3 straight and have themselves right back in the race. A win here pulls them even with the Saints in the win column in the NFC South. The line here is probably correct at pk. One model we use to predict NFL scores has the final at 28-28. Turnovers will likely decide it. Saints -6 in that category while Falcons +2. Home field puts it over the top. Falcons pk
Lions at Bears – Huge NFC North Game. Lions won the first meeting at home 24-13 so Bears looking for a little revenge. But the Bears are in off a short week having played on Monday Night and the numbers point towards the Lions being the better team. Points well worth taking here. Lions +3 -120
Rams at Browns – Rams almost won their 2nd in a row last week, losing in OT. Maybe this week as the Browns look terrible. ONCe again we’ll pass on the side and go with a total play. Under 37
Ravens at Seahawks – Ravens in off a fantastic road win over the Steelers last week but this is where the domination has to kick in if we’re to take the Ravens seriously as a potential AFC Super Bowl representative. They are the superior team across the board in every single category and the number on this Game is low. No reason the Ravens shouldn’t win this one by 10+. Anything but a dominant win here and you have to really question the Ravens. Look at what other good teams did with the Seahawks – 49ers 33-17, Steelers 24-0, Bengals 34-12. You think the Ravens are as good as those 3? We sure do. Ravens -6.5