Week 11 NFL Picks – 11/20/11

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Titans at Falcons – The match up to watch here is the Titans 32nd ranked running against the Falcons 4th ranked rush defense. But we think this one comes down to the wire making the +6 hard to pass up in a crucial Game for teams trying to keep pace with a division leader that’s two Games ahead. Titans +6

Bills at Dolphins – How the mighty have fallen. A couple of weeks ago the Bills were 6-1 and the Dolphins were 1-6. Miami wins a couple and the Bills lose a couple and suddenly, the Dolphins are favored at home for the 2nd consecutive week. Losing streaks happen, as do winning streaks, but there’s still time for the Bills to right the ship as they are still in the thick of things in the AFC East. Two wins against the Redskins and Chiefs don’t make a season. Looking at the season as a whole, the Bills are the better team. Buffalo +2

Jaguars at Browns – Two offenses that can’t move the ball. We’d like to go under the total here but this is the lowest total on the board at 34 and there may not be enough wiggle room, though Our model predicts 24 total points. We’re going to give the nod to the Browns here. Browns -1

Raiders at Vikings – Raiders battling it out for top honors in the AFC West while the Vikings sit in the basement of the NFC North. Darren McFadden is listed as OUT as of Friday. Carson Palmer getting more comfortable with the Raiders offense. If you take away the records here, this becomes a Game between two evenly matched teams. Weak call on the Vikings. Vikings +1

Panthers at Lions – Lions have dropped 3 of the last 4. If the Lions are going to bouNCe back and become a legitimate playoff threat, this is the week they’ll have to do it. Our model has this as one of the widest margins of the week with a 35-17 Lions win. Teaser players take note. The Lions look to be a good candidate to use in a teaser this week, bringing them down to -1. We’ll lay the TD here. Lions -7

Bucs at Packers – We mentioned the Lions Game as one of the widest margins of the week ACCording to Our model. Well, this one is the widest margin. The model says 43-15 Packers. It’s never advisable to lay double digits in the NFL but only a letdown can keep this one from getting ugly. Packers -14

Cowboys at Redskins – First time around this one was an 18-16 Cowboys win. Dallas hasn’t been too good on the road this year and the Skins defense can keep this one close. Our model has the Cowboys winning but not covering so we’ll run with it. Redskins +7

Cardinals at 49ers – The Cards have only lost two Games by more than 10 points this year while the 49ers have only won a couple by more than 10. We’re sure looking forward to next weeks battle of the Harbaugh’s. Problem is, the Niners may also be looking forward to it, as in, looking ahead. Be careful with this one, but the 49ers numbers, season to date, would indicate that this team has a high probability of playing in the NFC Championship Game this year. The Niners yards per point numbers are the best in the NFL. The big Game next week and the slightly iNFLAted line is a recipe for a Cards cover here but we’re going to hesitantly lay the number here with one of the NFL’s best. 49ers -9.5

Seahawks at Rams – Rams have won 2 of 3 (barely) but certainly can’t be trusted as a favorite. Seahawks +3

Charger at Bears – Chargers falling fast, have dropped 4 straight. Norv Turner on the hot seat though a win would put the Chargers right back into the race. Our line on this Game is Chicago -11, so we have to lay the small spot here. Bears -3.5

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