Week 5
NFL Picks
Here, we go around the NFL and make a selection on each NFL Game on the board along with a comment or two. This week we’d advise using caution with these picks as it is a very favorite heavy card for us. We typically play dogs and small favs in the NFL, so be careful here!
10/7/12
Falcons -3 over Redskins – Falcons are by far the superior team here. With such a small number, only one way to look.
Packers -7 over Colts – The Packers numbers are mediocre and nothing to write home about. But the Colts numbers are worse. The Colts are on their way with Andrew LUck, but not in this spot. Call this a weak lean as we don’t like laying the touchdown, but it’s a Green Bay call.
Giants -8.5 over Browns – At anything less than -10, have to go with the Giants. The Browns offense simply can’t keep up with Eli here. Giants looking to bouNCe back after loss to Eagles and should have no problem doing so here.
Vikings -5.5 over Titans – Vikings yards per point numbers are roughly 14 on offense and 17 on defense. Pretty good. The Titans numbers are 15 on offense and 11 on defense. Pretty bad. Using those numbers to make a line, the Vikings would be favored by roughly 9 points. Vikings!
Bengals -3 over Dolphins – A weak call here but we’ll lean towards the Bengals at home as a result of having the much better offense in this matchup.
Ravens -6 over Chiefs – This is a whacky line. Almost looks too good to be true, which often times means stay away. But the Chiefs are 32nd in the NFL defensively when using yards per point numbers. Yes, that’s 32 out of 32 teams. Worse yet, they are 30th offensively. They are going up against one of the premiere teams in the NFL. On paper, this is a complete mismatch. But be careful, they don’t play the Games on paper!
Seahawks +3 over Panthers – Neither team has been able to move the ball consistently but the Seahawks have the better defense. The Under 43.5 also looks enticing here.
Bears -4.5 over Jags – One rule of thumb when handicapping the NFL is to focus on picking straight up winners as over 80% of the time, the straight up winner also covers the spread. With that in mind, the Bears are a better football team than the Jags and should get this one.
49ers -9.5 over Bills – again, the 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL. Tough to lay a big number and equally tough to back a team that’s in off a blow out win like the Niners. In the real world, we’d never bet this Game as we simply don’t lay more than TD in the NFL. But force us to make a pick here and it’s San Fran.
Chargers +4 over Saints – Everyone keeps expecting the Saints to start winning. Everyone but us. The Saints aren’t as bad as their record, but the Chargers are better.