NFL Week 11 Picks

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NFL

Week 11

Pointspread

Picks – Analysis

11/16/14

Browns -3 -120 over Texans – Browns come into this one having won 5 of their last 6 Games while the Texans come in having lost 4 of their last 5. Worth noting however, that the Browns Schedule has been much easier in that stretch while the Texans have played Dallas, Indy, Pitt and Philly. Our numbers show this Game as a toss up which would generally have us taking points. However, with Ryan Mallett getting his 1st NFL start and this Game being in Cleveland, we’ll side with the red hot Browns.

 

Bears -3 -120 over Vikings – We could just as easily say “pass” in this spot, and maybe we should. We can’t recommend either side here. However, simply as a huNCh, we HAVE to assume that this will be the best effort, season to date, for the Bears, after being humiliated last week by Green Bay.

 

Eagles +6 over Packers – Just as we expect the Bears to improve this week, it’s not unreasonable to expect the Packers to come back down to earth. The Eagles aren’t the Bears and this Game shapes up as one decided by less than a TD ACCording to Our numbers. We’re a little worried about Mark SaNChez, but so far so good for the former Jet.

 

Chiefs -1.5 over Seahawks – Guess who has the #2 defense in the NFL when using yards per point as a ranking? Yep, the Chiefs. That KC home field edge will magnify any advantage they already have (sound familiar Seattle fans?). The Seahawks are drawing 68% of the action this week and despite that, the line has moved the other way. Generally an indication that the sharper money is on the Chiefs. We’ll go against the public here, and take who we feel is currently the better football team, at home, laying the small spot.

 

Panthers -1.5 over Falcons – Falcons lost 5 straight then beat the Bucs. Panthers have lost 4 straight and tied 1. The differeNCe is the Falcons losses are to min, chi, nyg, chi, balt det while Panthers tied Cinci and lost to gb, sea, no and Philly. So, in losing, Panthers more impressive, if that’s possible. We’ll take the lesser of two evils, at home.  Also note that the “public” is all over the Falcons.

 

Saints -7 over Bengals – the value in this one was at -5.5 where this Game opened. At -7, we missed the boat. But can’t recommend Cinci here. They have only played 3 on the road so far and two of those were 43-17 and 27-0 losses to Brady and LUck. Now they get Brees at home coming off a rare home loss. We’ve said all year that the Saints are no where near what they used to be. However, in this spot, at home, it looks as though they’re the way to go.

 

Bucs +7 over Redskins – Will RG3 be the differeNCe here? Tough to handicap this Game using season to date stats because of the QB situation in Washington. Our model says the Skins cover this number however when we look at a team with yards per point numbers of 17.7 on offense and 13.1 on defense, the last thing we want to be doing is laying significant points with them.

 

Broncos -9 over Rams – Rams defense ranks 32nd in the NFL (using yards per point) which has to have Mr. Manning licking his chops. Rams also making a QB change. So it’s Manning vs. Shaun Hill. Yikes!

 

Giants +4 over 49ers – Could be an ideal spot for the Giants. They played well for half a Game in Seattle last week. At first glaNCe, many would favor the 49ers in this matchup however when you look at the stats for these two, yards per point for example, they are nearly identical. Likewise, Our model predicts a tie!. We also get to go against the public here as 77% of the wagers taken on this Game have come in on the 49ers.

 

Raiders +10.5 over Chargers – Not particularly interested in this one. How could we be? Realize the Raiders are winless however San Diego has lost 3 in a row with the last one being  37-0 loss to Miami. Just don’t trust the Chargers laying double digits and the Raiders played them close the 1st time around.

 

Arizona/Detroit UNDER 41.5 – Great matchup. Old fashioned defensive battle? Lions #2 against the pass, #3 against the run. Cards #1 against the run but #30 against the pass. Drew Stanton gets the start for the Cards which would seem to give the edge to the Lions and Stafford, but nothing wrong with either defense in this one. We’ll go under the total.

 

Patriots +3 over Colts – Not a strong play, but the Pats getting points are always going to be worth a look. Our model when using the most recent 7 Games worth of data, has the Pats on top in this one by 2 in a high scoring affair that goes over the total of 57.

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