Pick – Analysis
The Egg Bowl has lost some of its luster due to Ole Miss’ collapse, but it still has a bit of meaning. At this point, it looks like if Mississippi State wins this Game, they’ll get the Fourth spot in the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs are -2.5 point favorites on the road as seen at 5 Dimes sportsbook.
The Rebels are in a bit of a skid and their inconsistent offense is finally getting the best of them. They have lost three straight Conference Games, including a 30-0 loss at Arkansas last weekend. Their win over Alabama is a thing of the past and now they’re just trying to put in a respectable season by beating their in-state rival.
Mississippi State lost at Alabama a couple weekends ago, but if that’s the only loss on their Schedule, it’s hard to discredit them, although it should be noted the Bulldogs only have one win over a current Top 25 team (vs. Auburn). Their wins over LSU and Texas A&M were great, but don’t mean as much these days. It’s a wonder what the playoff committee is going to do with that stat, because there are a few other teams with more wins over top teams.
As for this Game, none of that will matter if Mississippi State loses. The home team has owned this matchup in recent years winning nine of the last 10 Games. In a defensive battle last season, the Bulldogs came out on top 17-10 with the help of three Bo Wallace interceptions. Neither offense really did anything in that Game, and that could easily happen again.
The Ole Miss offense hasn’t been great this season and the loss of top receiver LAquon Treadwell hasn’t helped. In his senior season, QB Bo Wallace still hasn’t shown tons of improvement and struggles to do much against better defenses. Their running Game has been OK, but against a team like MSU, could find some trouble. Leading RBs Jaylen Walton (5.2 YPC) and Jordan Wilkins (6.9 YPC) both average a decent amount, but only have a combined five touchdowns. It should be noted this offense did turn it over six times last week as well.
Ole Miss still leads the nation in points allowed (13.5 PPG) so they have that going for them, although the Rebels have allowed at least 30 points in their last two SEC Games. Mississippi State is great on both sides of the ball and offense is where they have the advantage.
If the Bulldogs pull out this win, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dak Prescott as a Heisman finalist. Unlike Wallace, his numbers have improved this season. While Prescott does have 10 interceptions, he has 35 total touchdowns and regularly beats up on solid defenses. The run Game of Josh Robinson (1,084 yards, 11 TDs) and Prescott (891 yards, 12 TDs) is the hardest thing to stop from this offense. Both guys are big and can run past defenders.
Ole Miss has a pretty stout run defense so that could be the most important battle in the Game. Due to having the better offense, Miss. State gets the nod as favorites.
The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Conference Games and 5-1 ATS in their last six road Games. The Rebels don’t have a ton of trends, but they have not covered in Four straight and they are an interesting 4-17 ATS in their last 21 November Games. In this matchup, the home team has covered five of the last six meetings.
Check back Friday Night for a pick on this Game.