NFL
Week 12
Pointspread Picks
11/23/14
Here’s a look at week 12 in the NFL as we head down the stretch towards the playoffs. As college football winds down, we’ll iNCrease Our NFL coverage with more indepth write ups of the marquee Games.
Chiefs -7 over Raider – Simply siding with one of the best against one of the worst here.
Browns +3 over Falcons – Atlanta in off winning two in a row. But that came against Tampa and Carolina and also on the heels of having lost 5 in a row and to a few bad teams at that. Have to side with the Browns are are still very much in the thick of things in 2014.
Titans/Eagles over 48.5 – I suppose of we forgive the Pats for losing badly in KC, we have to forgive the Eagles for their humiliating performance against the Pack. Still not interested in backing them though in off that pathetic display. We’ll try the over here.
Patriots -7 over Lions – Pats are right where we’d expect to find them this time of year…..8-2 and the team to beat in the AFC. Lions however, are in uNChartered waters and have done so on the heels of a legitimate defense. But the Pats play some defense as well and in this spot, you worry about the Lions being able to go toe to toe offensively here.
Packers -9.5 over Vikings – Possible GB letdown? Perhaps. But still willing to lay less than 10 with a Packers team on fire. When using the entire seasons worth of data, Our model GAs GB on top by 11. However, when using just the last y Games for both teams, the model says GB 42-19! That pretty much sums up Green Bay’s current form.
Colts -13.5 over Jags – Jags can’t get out of their own way while Indy off a loss and can’t afford a slip up. Expect a big, focused effort from the Colts which spells trouble for Jax.
Bengals/Texans Under 43.5 – Wouldn’t mind a little more cushion here but the under may be worth a look even at 43.5 as both teams middle of the pack offensively yet top 3 and top 7 defensively when using yards per point to rank.
Bill/Jets Under 38.5 – First Game between these two saw 66 total points scored. We’ll look for the opposite here as these two poor offenses combined with the weather conditions in Buffalo should keep scoring down. But this is a weak call as total already low to begin with and not much wiggle room. Just a guess.
Bucs +5.5 over Bears – Another weak call. One team is as bad as the other. Can’t trust either one as a favorite so we’ll take the dog here.
Cardinals +6.5 over Seahawks – The Raw numbers say the Cards are the right side. What the numbers can’t ACCount for, are the intangibles, such as the emotion involved, the desparation of the Super Bowl Champs with their backs to the wall and the incredible home field edge in Seattle. This Game figures to be a huge challenge for QB Drew Stanton. Still,, the numbers have to count for something and this Cardinals TEAM is pretty damn good. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle get the win, but not by enough to get the money.
Rams +4.5 over Chargers – Not the easiest 5 Game stretch recently for Rams yet they still came out 3-2 beating Seattle, San Fran and Denver. Chargers had lost 3 straight before squeaking by Raiders. Better current form goes to the Rams.
Broncos -7 over Dolphins – Miami shaping up as a tough out and of the two here, Miami owns the better defense. But the Broncos are in off 3 straight road Games and glad to be home where they haven’t lost yet. They have also answered each loss this year with a 21+ point win. Asking the Miami offense to keep up with Peyton may be a bit much in this spot. Use caution here though as Our model, when using only the last 7 Games worth of data, predicts the Dolphins to upset the Broncos by 1.
49ers -9 over Redskins – nothing strong here. We flip flopped on this one as we could make a case either way. Ultimately, we prefer the 6-4 49ers who are gunning for the playoffs over the 3-7 Redskins dealing with a QB issue and coming off a loss to the lowly Bucs.
Cowboys -3 -125 over Giants – Hate to join the rest of the world on another Game as everyone is on Dallas here. But hard to bite on the Giants who have lost 5 straight and are just playing out their remaining Games, going up against playoff bound Dallas. We’ll go with the philosophy that if you pick the straight up winner, the cover is likely to follow.