NFL
WEEK 15
PICKS
12/11/14
Raiders/Chiefs UNDER 41.5 – Our model predicts the Raiders to Scoreno more than 12 points in this Game reGArdless of what parameters we use in terms of time frames, i.e.. last 7 Games, full season and so on. That’s enough for us to recommend the under in this one.
Ravens -14 over Jags – Yeah, not thrilled with laying double digits with ANY NFL Game. However, can’t really see any other way to go in this one. One of the very worst teams in the NFL against a potential Super Bowl contender. Ravens #2 in the NFL in yards per point differential. Jags 30th. Should be a cake walk. Right??
Steelers -1.5 over Falcons AND Over – We keep trying to stick a fork in the Steelers because we don’t think they’re a very good football team. Yet, they keep hanging around and are still very much alive. Speaking of being alive, the terrible Falcons are also still in it, tied with New Orleans for 1st in the NFC South. This one has all the makings of a classic shoot out and when the dust clears, the feeling here is that the Steelers find a way to win.
Colts -6.5 over Texans – Texans have faltered every time they have stepped up in class this year, with any success coming against mediocre to bad teams. Last time around it was a 5 point Colts road win. We think that margin is extended in this one as the Colts close in on a Division crown and the playoffs.
Bengals +1.5 over Browns – Somehow, the Bengals have managed to beat the Ravens twice this year. If they can beat Baltimore, they should be able to handle a Johnny Manziel led Browns team in their rematch and GAin a little revenge for that 23=3 loss back in November.
Patriots -7.5 over Dolphins – Patriots and playoff form and looking for a little pay back for week one when the Dolphins beat the Pats 33-20 down in Miami.
Bills +4.5 over Packers – This one sets up nicely for the Bills. Packers in off a Monday Nighter and a short week. The public is in LOVE with the Packers (81% of the action in this Game has come in on Green Bay.) But the Bills actually have a tough defense (ask Manning and the Broncos) and Our model predicts a close Game, even a Bills straight up win in some scenarios.
Chargers +4 over Broncos – Why not? Another against the public special. No question the Broncos have an offense but their lack of a solid defense could very well bite them in the ass. The Broncos defensive yards per point number of 13.8 is 19th in the NFL. On the road, that number drops to 12, which is 2nd to LAST in the NFL. The Chargers offense has struggled a bit, but we know it’s there and Rivers might find enough holes to take this one to the wire.
Seahawks -10 over 49ers – Seahawks hitting their stride at just the right time while the 49ers look like a team that has checked out. We’d be very surprised if the 49ers anemic offense were able to go into Seattle and do any damage. -10 is a big number but we’ll cautiously lay it here.
Cowboys +3.5 over Eagles – The hook may come in handy here. Depending on how things shake out in other matchups this week, this could essentially be an elimination Game, ReGArdless, it will be important and we think things will be much different this time around for the Cowboys in this rematch. We prefer Romo over SaNChez in this spot.