Colts Texans NFL Pick

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NFL Pick

with Analysis


The Texans host the Colts in this weeks Thursday Night Football action with the Colts currently -2.5 to -3 +105 at top offshore sportsbooks. The current total is 46. The Colts come in at 3-2 and on a 3 Game winning streak after starting the year 0-2 while the Texans are also 3-2 and tied with these Colts for 1st place in the AFC South.

One of the first things we’ll look at in an NFL matchup is each teams yards per point numbers. If you want to know who the contenders are and who the pretenders are, you can take a look at those numbers any time after week 4 and get a good idea. The teams that rank towards the bottom of the NFL are absolutely toast. While the teams at the top, will no doubt be heard from before all is said and done.

For example, the San Diego Chargers off ypp number is 13.9 and their def is 23.1 (#1 defensively). Their ypp differential is +9.2, also #1 in the NFL. Mark it down now. Barring a major injury such as Rivers going down, the Chargers will likely be playing in the AFC championship, at the very least.

I bring this up because the Texans have the #3 defense when using these numbers to rank teams. A big Game, for first place in the division, at home, getting points, along with a legitimate defense make the Texans a very tempting wager. Throw in Our Score Prediction model which has this as a 1 point Game, and you almost HAVE to bet the Texans here.

But perhaps there’s more to this story. Specifically, Andrew LUck. Aside from lofty stats, such as yards per point numbers, something else legitimate NFL contenders typically have in common are legitimate QB’s to lead the way. Here we have Andrew LUck vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who would you rather take into battle?

The Texans numbers are padded a bit by having beaten the Redskins, Raiders and Bills. The Colts lost close Games to the Broncos and Eagles and beat a pretty good Ravens team last week. The feeling here is that while these teams have some fairly even talent, the differeNCe in this one may very well come down to LUck. Andrew that is. So we’ll lay the small spot with a little extra juice here in a Game we think the Colts find a way to win and take over sole possession of 1st place in the division. Colts -2.5 -120

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