Week 10
NFL Picks
against the Spread
11/9/14
Dolphins +3 over Lions – Dolphins are on a roll while close Games are the norm for the Lions. This Game appears to be a toss up so willing to take any points available. We’d be surprised if there are any +3’s remaining by Sunday.
Chiefs -1.5 over Bills – Chiefs have covered 7 straight proving the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to them just yet. Bottom line here is that the Chiefs have played better against stronger opposition and they have the numbers to back up a straight up win on the road in Buffalo. (defensive yards per point number is 4th best in NFL)
Saints -5 over 49ers – Yards per point numbers were mentioned above and are mentioned often on these pages. It’s worth repeating that we have been looking at these numbers on a weekly basis for 30 years and that the numbers each of these teams has season to date are NOT the numbers of playoff teams. The 49ers numbers of 16.5 on offense and 13.1 on defense rank them near the bottom on both sides of the ball. The Saints numbers are roughly 15 on each side of the ball which is average at best but they have been improving. Also note there’s been talk of problems in the 49ers locker room. Not impressed with either team but the Saints should get it done at home.
Ravens -9.5 over Titans – This Game should start to answer some questions about these Ravens. A closer look at their Schedule and you’ll be hard pressed to find any legit challenges. Maybe that’s just what the NFL has become, mediocre across the board, but the Ravens really have no signature wins other than knocking off the Steelers in week 2. Back to back losses have the Ravens backs up against the wall. The numbers suggest the Ravens are the superior team here. In fact, Our model has the Ravens by a couple of TD”s. If the Ravens are a legitimate playoff team, they’ll win this Game and make a statement while they’re at it.
Steelers -4.5 over Jets – Hard to buck these Steelers after their recent surge. Especially against THE worst team in the NFL. Jets -15 turnover margin ranks last in the NFL. Defensive yards per point of 11.4 is last in the NFL. Offensive ypp number of 19 is 2nd to last in the NFL. Only way to go is with the Steelers here.
Bucs +2.5 over Falcons – Very difficult to back a 1 win team. Unless of course they are at home, playing against a 2 win team with a lame duck coach who has lost 5 straight.
Broncos -11 over Raiders – Even more difficult to back a NO win team. Raiders have played good teams close however the Broncos are coming off a loss and should bouNCe back in a big way this week. This one could get ugly.
Cardinals -7 over Rams – The Cardinals are a very legitimate Super Bowl contender and it’s been a run that goes back to last years 10-6 team having won 7 of their last 9 and then losing to the 49ers by a FG in the final Game. The Cards could have actually gone 11-5 last year and STILL missed the playoffs. This looks to be a team not willing to leave anything up to chance this year. A team on a mission. Arizona also becoming a very difficult venue for visiting teams. Cards take this one by more than the number.
Giants +9 over Seahawks – Would obviously prefer to get +10 here, so worth waiting for. This is a Game between two teams that have been major disappointments thus far. The Seahawks are still very much in the thick of things at 5-3 however this team simply doesn’t come close to resembling last years Seahawks. In fact, looking at Seattle’s numbers, they are the numbers of a mediocre football team. Seattle has one win by more than 10 points this year and that was in the first Game of the year. Their last two wins, over Carolina and Oakland were by 4 and 6 points. Hard to recommend the Giants but they have shown, at times, that they can put points on the board making the back door cover a real possibility here.
Packers -7 over Bears – Just when we were getting ready to puNCh the Packers playoff ticket they lay a huge egg at New Orleans. Both teams come in off a bye and the Pack have been money in that situation in recent years. Our model has Green Bay by 10+ so we’ll lay the TD in this spot.