Week 5 NFL Picks

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Week 5

Free NFL Picks

against the Spread

 

Listed below are Our week 5 NFL picks along with a few words about each Game.

10/5/14

Bears +3 -130 over Panthers – That Panthers defense that we expected so much from this year has fallen apart at the seams giving up 37 and 38 points in back to back weeks. Not only that, but their offense is struggling to move the ball as their yards per point number of 18 is 6th worst in the NFL. Bears are the better team getting points here.

 

Browns +2 over Titans – Speaking of better teams getting points, that would be the Browns in this matchup. The Titans are just plain horrendous. Also, speaking of bad offenses and yards per point numbers, the Titans 21.8 offensive ypp number places them dead last in the NFL. ONCe again, the better team is getting points here.

 

Eagles -7 over Rams – Eagles in off losing to San Fran last week and we think they bouNCe back big at home this week. Our model has the Eagles on top here by a couple of TD’s.

 

Falcons +4 over Giants – Lots of love for the Giants this week after they turned things around, winning the past two weeks after an 0-2 start which saw them Scorejust 14 points in Games 1+2 (30 and 45 the last two weeks.) The Falcons are perfect at home and 0-2 on the road. The Falcons are a bit banged up which would keep us from getting too serious about this play, however, we don’t see much of a differeNCe between these two at this point. In fact, Our number would be Giants -2 or 3, so we’ll take the +4 here.

 

Bucs +10 over the Saints – We have been down on the Saints for some time now as they continue to get respect based on what they did in the past rather than what they have done lately. If we were to take away the team names in this one and just present you with the stats for this Game, there’s no way one team would be double digit favorites over the other. Because frankly, they both stink. No question the Bucs are even worse than the Saints, however, they have a little juice after getting into the win column last week so we’ll try and capitalize on the overiNFLAted Saints lines here and going forward.

 

Texans +6 over Cowboys – Both teams here are 3-1 however both have played weak opposition. So, we’ll see if these teams can maintain their current pace. If their stats in week 16 look anything like their stats the first 4 weeks, these two will be playoff teams. The Texans defensive yards per point number of 22 is good for 3rd best in the NFL while the Cowboys 17.7 places them 6th. Those Texans numbers are good enough for us to take the +6 here but note we also have a coNFLict as Our model has the Cowboys by 10.

 

Bills +7 and Bills/Lions UNDER 44 – When you think Detroit Lions you think offense. However, take a look at the points given up by the Lions thus far….14, 24, 7 and 17. All the while, their offense has hardly been lighting up the scoreboard other than week 1 against the Giants. Similar numbers for the Bills, giving up 20, 10, 22 and 23 points and in that stretch was the Chargers and Bears. We’ll go under the total here and we’ll also grab the Bills plus the TD.

 

Colts -3 -130 – This is a weak call. After 4 weeks, the Ravens have the 2nd best defense in the NFL when using yards per point as an indicator. Now, their Games thus far have been against the Bengals, Steelers, Browns and Panthers. Not exactly offensive power houses. This week they’ll get their test against the #3 offense (using ypp) with Andrew LUck and the Colts. The home field puts this one over the top for us.

 

Steelers/Jags UNDER 47 – If we had to pick a side we’d probably take the Steelers. Though they certainly aren’t the team you want to ask to cover a number on the road. The Jags haven’t been closer than 17 in each Game thus far. That’s pretty bad. But sooner or later, they’ll get one and it wouldn’t shock us if it were this week. But we’ll skip the side and go under the total here.

 

Cardinals +7 over Broncos – These two teams have each only played 3 Games. Cards have given up 17, 14 and 14 and that’s against the Chargers, Giants and 49ers. Carson Palmer is OUT and he may be gone for awhile. Asking Drew Stanton to go into Denver and outduel Peyton Manning may be asking a bit too much. However, the Cards are on a roll both straight up and against the number going back to last season so we’ll take a shot with what looks to be a very good football team, reGArdless of who is under center.

 

Chiefs +6 over 49ers – Our first iNClination would be to go against the Chiefs here after their Monday night explosion. Classic set up for a big letdown here with this team now thinking they are better than they really are. But the 49ers aren’t exactly the 49ers we’ve been used to seeing the last few years. Their biggest margin was week 1 against Dallas and that Scorewas deceiving. We’ll take the Chiefs to keep it close here but tread lightly.

 

Chargers -6.5 over Jets – Jets yards per point numbers are among the worst in the NFL with an 18.5 on offense and a 12.1 on defense. The Chargers ypp numbers are among the best at 13.8 and 20.7. All signs point towards a comfortable Chargers win here.

 

Bengals -1 over Pats – The Bengals look to be the real deal while the Pats are obviously not the Pats of old and not just because of Monday night but the season as a whole thus far. Sure, coming off one of their worst defeats EVER, going against Brady and Belichick at home on Sunday Night football could prove to be a risky proposition. But the talent simply may not be there any longer and really, if the Bengals truly are ready to take that next step, this is a Game they win.

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