Week 7
NFL Picks
with Analysis
10/19/14
Patriots -9.5 over Jets – This isn’t the type of set up we like to get involved with. Specifically, laying more than a TD in a Game between two division rivals with a history of close Games. That said, can’t back the Jets here as they have been one of the worst teams in the NFL, to this point.
Bengals +3 +110 over Colts – The Colts defense showed up against weaker opposition this year but GAve up 24+ against teams with an offensive puNCh. Look for the Bengals to get their points in this one and for this Game to come down to the wire. In that type of a setup, we want to be taking points. Bengals still looking for first win after being blown out of the building in New England. A win here would be a huge boost.
Titans +5.5 over Redskins – This is bad vs. bad. In which case, we want to be taking points.
Bears/Dolphins over 48 – Not much to recommend as far as a side in this one so we’ll turn to the total. Two teams with bad defensive yards per point numbers (6th worst and 12th worst) suggest we could see plenty of points scored here.
Browns -5.5 over Jaguars – This looks to be a barGAin at anything less than a TD. The Browns are the real deal in terms of being a pretty good football team this year. True, we’d like to see how they perform against better teams as their biggest test to date came in a 23-21 loss to the Ravens but we’ll soon get Our chance. In the meantime, IF the Browns are going to have a legitimate chance at a winning record this year, a Game against the worst the NFL has to offer is obviously a must win. A win here is likely a cover.
Seahawks -6.5 -115 over Rams – Not too alarmed over the Seahawks home loss to the Cowboys. In fact, we predicted it. But that loss makes this play even stronger as we fully expect Seattle to bouNCe back this week. Remember, they have wins over Denver and Green Bay this year, not exactly cupcakes and their losses were to Dallas and San Diego, two likely playoff teams. The Rams won’t be mistaken for a playoff team anytime soon. We like Seattle by a couple of TD’s here.
Packers -7 even over Panthers – Believe it or not, the Packers defense looks like it’s better than the Panthers. That’s a statement we never thought we’d be making in 2014. However, the numbers support that statement. The Packers have won their last 3 Games by an average score of 36-16. while the Panthers oNCe great defense is giving up 33 points per Game in that same stretch. Green Bay is better on both sides of the ball.
Ravens -7 -105 over Falcons – The Ravens boast the #1 defense in the NFL with a yards per point number of 22.3. Here they get a Falcons team that is winless on the road and in fact their only two wins came against the Bucs and Saints. This is a Game between a Super Bowl contender (Ravens) and a team not likely to reach .500 this year. Only one way to look here.
Bills -6 over Vikings – This Card is loaded with way too many favorites this week. We’ll typically back 75% underdogs. However, really can’t remember a year in the NFL with so many BAD teams. Simply can’t trust the Vikings. They managed to Score34 and 41 points against the Rams and Falcons but scored just 7, 10, 9 and 3 in their other 4 Games! Perhaps UNDER 42.5 is worth a look as well.
Lions -2.5 -120 over Saints – Neither team much to write home about offensively with both teams offensive yards per point numbers roughly 17 which is very poor. However, check out the Lions defense! Their ypp number of 19.8 is good for 4th best in the NFL. They have held 5 of their 6 opponents to 17 points or less. Not too shabby and that’s what wins this Game.
Chiefs +4.5 over Chargers – Last weeks Chargers performance against the Raiders kind of brings San Diego back down to earth a bit in Our eyes. Chiefs have been competitive in all but their first Game of the season and at 2-3, while no time to panic, there should be a sense of urgeNCy. Our model has this Game dead even so we’ll grab the points here with the Chiefs.
Cowboys -6.5 -115 over Giants – Can the Cowboys follow up their big win in Seattle with another big win over a division rival? We felt the Giants were well on their way to turning things around. Then, 27-0 at Philly happened. Upon further review, perhaps we shouldn’t have given so much weight to Giants wins over Washington and Atlanta. The Cowboys win over Seattle trumps anything the Giants have done this year. If the Cowboys are for real, they’ll handle the Giants.
Cardinals -3.5 over Raiders – Our numbers, iNCluding Our model, suggest the Cards are at least two touchdowns better than the Raiders. The Raiders likely left everything on the field last week in their 3 point loss to division rival San Diego.
Broncos -6.5 over 49ers – Fascinating Game. Many had the 49ers dead in the water. But at 4-2 the 49ers are right in the thick of things. They have held 3 teams to 17 points and a couple more to 21 and 23 and now get to test their talents on Peyton Manning and company. Speaking of which, the Broncos have 4 wins and all 4 came by a TD or more. The Broncos might be better utilized in a teaser this week as we can’t see them losing this Game straight up. Covering the -6.5 might be a bit more tricky, but we’ll lay it.