Current Odds
to win AFC South
Picks and Preview
The Colts made easy work of the AFC South again last year, going 6-0 against the division for the second-straight year. They were only at -180, which was pretty decent odds considering their biggest competitor, the Texans, finished 2-14 back in 2013. This year, the bookmakers have realized their mistakes and Indianapolis is a sizable -500 favorite to win the division, the biggest favorite in the NFL.
Odds to win AFC South
courtesy of Sportsbook.ag
Indianapolis Colts -500
Houston Texans +550
Tennessee Titans +2200
Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
There is only one reason the Indianapolis Colts are favored to win the AFC South and his name is Andrew LUck. The rest of the division still lacks a top-15 quarterback in the league, while LUck is one of the best. Not only that, but the Colts added Frank Gore, Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorsett in the offseason to give LUck even more weapons. With LUck healthy, it would be a huge surprise if the Colts didn’t win this division and the -500 shows exactly that. Sure, the Colts still have issues on defense and they didn’t really address their weak run defense that much, but like last year, that won’t matter significantly in the regular season as the Colts have one of the easier Schedules in the league. LUck and company should oNCe again have their way against division foes and that will be enough to take the division.
The Houston Texans had a small shot to give the Colts trouble, but losing Arian Foster for at least half the season does not help their cause and their odds fell because of it. But still, at +550 the Texans’ odds of winning the South are much better than the other two teams. The only problem is that Houston still doesn’t know who its starting quarterback is going to be. The competition is still wide open (as of late August) between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett and that decision probably won’t come until a week or two before the season. Alfred Blue and the rest of the running backs are fine options, but none of them is Arian Foster. DeAndre Hopkins is set for a big season, though, and Cecil Shorts comes in where Andre Johnson was last year. While Shorts never stays healthy, the Texans still have Nate Washington and rookie Jaelen Strong to turn to in the passing Game. Their defense was good last year, but could be even better this season as long as Jadeveon Clowney and ViNCe Wilfork can give them quality snaps. An issue remains for the Texans in the secondary, and that won’t help when facing Andrew LUck.
Marcus Mariota is the future quarterback of the Tennessee Titans, but it’s unlikely he’ll make a huge differeNCe in his first season. This team still finished with only two wins last year and they still have major issues on the defensive side. They GAve up 438 points last year and while they added a few new names (Brian Orakpo, Perrish Cox), it’s hard to see them turning this defense into an elite unit. Offensively, their running Game is still a question with David Cobb and Bishop Sankey. In the passing Game, it’d be nice if Dorial Green-Beckham can impress early because Hakeem Nicks, Justin Hunter and Harry Douglas are all lacking. Mariota will turn to Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker often in his rookie season.
The same can be said about the Jacksonville Jaguars, who surprisingly have worse odds than the Titans. The offense should be a bit better this year after scoring just 249 points last year, but Blake Bortles will need to improve. T.J. Yeldon has a chance to be a workhorse in the backfield if all goes well and Julius Thomas will be a nice target for Bortles, especially in the red zone. The Jags also have some pieces on the defensive end to be an above-average unit, but similar to other teams in this division, their secondary is a major issue.
For the Colts to lose the AFC South, something crazy will have to happen, like Andrew LUck getting hurt and that’s probably not something you want to bet on. The Colts have the best offense in the division and a decent enough defense to oNCe again be around the 11-win mark, if not more this season.