Super Bowl 49 Pick

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Super Bowl 49 Pick

Patriots

vs.

Seahawks

2/1/15

The New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks will meet in Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday February 1st in a Game that will kick off at 6:30 pm est. Currently, approximately one week before the Game, 5 dimes sportsbook has the Game a pick em with a total of 48.

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Now, on to the Game……

Let’s first address the elephant in the room. “Deflate-GAte”. Perhaps we’ll write a 2nd article, addressing this matter. But to sum up in a senteNCe or two, this whole thing is an absolute joke. The Patriots aren’t here because some footballs were under iNFLAted. This is only a big deal, because it’s the hated Patriots and frankly, it makes guys like John Harbaugh look like a little girl. Poor losers. SOur grapes. Whatever. Get over it. The blame here lies squarely on the shoulders of the NFL for having such a system in place to begin with. Obviously. if it was such a big deal, they would police it better. Oh, and by the way, you ever here Belichick complaining about the air in opponents footballs or teams formations?

The issue here for Our purpose, is how this nonsense will impact the Game. The feeling here is that it will only HELP the Patriots. This team is beyond getting distracted. All it does is give them more to prove, and prove they will.

We could point towards Our write up on the Green Bay vs. Seattle Game of last week for the reasons we like the Pats here. We went as far as to play Green Bay on the money line and let’s face it, we should have cashed that ticket. The important point to remember here is that we were calling for Green Bay to win and the Game was in Seattle where the Seahawks have an incredible home field advantage! Put Seattle on the road and we have just another decent NFL team.

Seattle was 5-3 on the road losing to the Chargers, Rams and Chiefs. Their road yards per point numbers kind of jump off the page at you. Their offensive yards per point number on the road is 17.6. That’s bad folks. Very good teams will be around 12 or 13. Average teams 14 maybe 15. But 17.5? To compare, the Patriots road offensive ypp number is 13.4, among the best in the NFL. What that means is, put the Patriots on any field, home or away, and they can move the football and convert yards GAined into points on the scoreboard.

Ah, but they have to go up against the ferocious Seahawk defense. Well, oNCe again, there’s not much differeNCe between the two when we look at the yards per point numbers. The Seahawks road ypp defensive number is 15.6. That Pats is 15.

Full season ypp numbers

Sea 14.9 off and 16.9 def

Pats 12.2 off and 17.5 def

That takes every Game played into ACCount. As you can see, the Pats were better on BOTH sides of the ball. The correct line for this Game, if we use those numbers, would be New England by 3.

Our model also agrees. Our model predicts a score of Patriots 24 Seattle 21 and that’s taking the entire season into ACCount. If we use only the last 7 Games worth of data, we get a predicted score of Seattle 18 New England 15. However, as stated in the Green Bay write up, the feeling here is that the stretch run of the Seahawks was very deceiving based on the lack of offense of their opponents.

Green Bay was able to move the ball against Seattle and the Patriots will be able to as well. Ultimately, the differeNCe in this Game should be the superiority of the Patriots offense when compared to Seattle’s. Oh, and a little extra motivation for Brady can go a long way.

Bottom line here is, we don’t have a pointspread to be coNCerned with. We don’t have to worry about covering a number. We just have to worry about picking a straight up winner and the feeling here is the Patriots are the better football team. Whether they win by 1 or 30, we cash Our ticket either way.

Everyone loves to predict the final score of the Super Bowl. We GAve you Our model’s prediction above. We’ll go out on a little limb and suggest it isn’t as close as the model predicts. The Patriots pull away and end up sending a message in a very big way. Let’s call it New England 31 Seattle 10. The play is Patriots pick over Seahawks.

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