NFC Championship Pick
The Carolina Panthers will host the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon with the winner earning the right to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 50. The Panthers are currently -3 point home favorites with a total of 48 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Now, to be honest, we put off writing this Game up until later in the week. Why you ask? Well, simply because this is a damn hard Game to pick a winner in! Seriously folks, just because it’s the NFC Championship, it doesn’t mean you HAVE to bet the Game. This may very well be one of those Games that’s better to watch from the sidelines.
That being said, we’ll give Our take and we’ll also tell you who Our model likes.
Both of these teams deserve to be here. They are the two best in the NFC, as it should be. The Panthers slipped up one time this year, in a meaningless Game against the Falcons and the Cards dropped a couple Games early in the season before winning 9 straight and then dropping a meaningless one to the Seahawks before ending Green Bays season last week.
The Panthers are 8-0 at home while the Cards are 7-1 on the road. In fact, the Cards actually average more points per Game on the road than at home. The Cards GAve up 19 points per Game on the road while the Panthers GAve up an average of 17 points per Game at home.
Our model? Well, the model likes the Cards. We used 3 sets of parameters, full season data, last 7 Games only and last 4 Games only. Here’s the results.
Full Season Cards 28-26
Last 4 Games only Cards 33-24
Last 7 Games only Cards 26-23
We’d put more weight in the full season and last 7 predictions. Both call for a very tight Game.
So which way are we going? Well, we’re going to go against Our model in this Game (just as in the Pats/Broncos Game). We’re going with the Panthers. Can’t give you any coNCrete stats and facts why though. Simply an opinion based on watching both teams this year. Both are among the cream of the crop. However, the feeling here is that this is a special year for the Panthers. 15-1 is pretty damn good. It’s damn near impossible to go undefeated in the NFL, so the throw away Game against the Falcons means nothing. OUtside of that, this team has been unbeatable and we think that continues here. As you know, pick the straight up winner and odds are, you’ll cover the spread as well. Panthers -3