Chiefs
vs.
Patriots
Divisional Playoff
Pick with Analysis
1/16/16
The NFL Divisional Playoffs get going on Saturday with the first Game up featuring the Kansas City Chiefs at the New England Patriots. The Patriots are currently -5 point favorites with a total of 42. Those odds are available at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Last week we went 3-0 on Our NFL Key Releases with the Chiefs over the Texans being Our strongest play of the weekend. You can read that article here and note that many of the reasons we like the Chief this week can be found in that article. No question, this will be a much different Game than we saw last week in Houston. As we mentioned in that article, the Texans weren’t a very good team. The Pats, at home no less, a different story. But we still like the Chiefs here.
Blame it on injuries if you’d like, along with locking up a playoff spot early, but fact remains, the Patriots lost 4 of their last 6 Games. There are also plenty of wins decided by a TD or less this year iNCluding home wins over the Steelers, Jets and Bills and a home loss to the Eagles. In other words, this hasn’t exactly been a dominant run by the Pats. This is also a Pats defense that has given up 20+ points 9 times this year going up against a Chiefs team that’s scored 21+ 13 times. The Chiefs will get their points and should be there with a chance to win it in the end.
Yeah, we get it. This is the mighty Pats. Brady, Belichick, history, dynasty, etc. etc. This is the playoffs and the Pats are at home where they are 15-4 in playoff Games and 6-1 in divisional playoff Games. Belichick needs one more postseason victory to move into a first-place tie with Tom LAndry (20) for most playoff victories. Brady has 18 playoff wins, the most of any QB ever to play the Game. The list of ACColades goes on and on…..and on.
But this is the 2015 Pats and they are playing the 2015 Chiefs, who might just be the better team at this point and time of the season. They are certainly the hotter team right now, having won their last 11 Games and as refereNCed in the write up last week, their yards per points numbers are top 3 on both sides of the ball, the only playoff team to ACComplish that.
Chiefs ypp numbers 13.1 offense and 18.4 defense
Pats ypp numbers 12.9 offense and 17.2 defense.
The Chiefs ypp numbers are a tad better but these are what the numbers of very good football teams look like. It should be noted though, that the Chiefs numbers are even BETTER on the ROAD, where their 11.3 offensive number is #1 in the NFL and their defensive number of 19.4 is #3 overall.
Another reason we like the Chiefs here is Our model predicts a straight up Chiefs win. Not only does Our model predict a Chiefs win using full season data, but also using data from just the last 7 Games as well as just the last 4 Games. Here are the models predictions:
Full Season Data – 24-21
Data from last 7 only – 23-15
Data from last 4 only – 20-12
All Chiefs.
So, an across the board sweep for the model and plenty of other numbers that suggest this won’t be a walk in the park for Tom Brady and the Patriots. Quite the contrary. Everything points to a good close playoff Game with the Chiefs winning straight up a very real possibility. Chiefs +5