NFC Wild Card Games

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NFC

Wild Card Games

Seahawks – Vikings

Packers – Redskins

1/10/16

The NFC Wild Card round takes center stage on Sunday with Games between the Seahawks and Vikings and then the Packers and Redskins. In those Games, the Seahawks are -5 point road favorites and the the Packers are also favored on the road, by 1. Those odds are current as of Thursday at 5 dimes sportsbook.

We’ll first take a look at the Seahawks – Vikings Game.

Over 70% of the wagers coming in on this one have been on the Seahawks. No surprise there. Seattle has been hot, and of course has been a fixture in the NFL playoffs over the last few years, winning the Super Bowl two years ago and losing to the Pats last year. Meanwhile, the Vikings last appeared in the playoffs in 2012, and before that, 2009.

Now, the Seahawks have been hot, however, you need to consider who they beat during their streak.  San Fran, Baltimore, the Rams and Browns are includedin their winning 6 of their last 7. Not to mention beating a Cardinals team in the final week that had already locked up the #2 seed.

Things aren’t always what they seem. Look at their first 9 Games and you’ll find 5 losses along with a 1 point and 3 point win. When you mix it all together into an entire season, the Seahawks numbers aren’t all that different from the Vikings,

Our model, using full season data, has the Seahawks on top by 2. We think the Vikings are a live home dog here and we get to go against the public to boot Vikings +5 or better.

As for Game #2 between the Packers and Redskins…….this is the Game we like least this weekend. There’s a part of us that would like to side with the Skins. At home, finished strong, nice story, etc. Then there’s the part that says Aaron Rodgers, playoffs, done deal, Packers.

Perhaps the oddsmakers have this one right. Pick em.

Our model has the Packers on top when using only the last 7 Games 25-22. However, when using only the last 4 Games, the predicted score is 27-24 Skins. We’ll side with the Skins here but it’s a weak call. Redskins pk

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