Bucs – Saints Week 9 Free Pick with Analysis

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Week 9

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5 SU 1-5-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-2 SU 5-2 ATS)

Many though the Buccaneers had a legit shot at the NFC South title this season, but they have lost Four in a row after winning two of their first three Games and they are in the basement of the division. They were held to only three points  in their last Game and while they have the 2nd ranked passing offense in the NFL Jameis Winston is banged up, but should still go in this Game. The season may be lost if Tampa losses this Game in the Big Easy and they are 0-3 on the road this season.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Saints are 7.5-point favorites with a total of 50.

While the Bucs are reeling the Saints are rolling winners of five in a row and they are atop the NFC South. Drew Brees leads the offense, which 6th in the league in ppg and unlike the last few seasons they have a pretty good run Game and defense.

Last season these division rivals split the two Games facing each other with each winning at home.

In the last five Games between these teams the Under record is 4-1.

In their last Game the Bucs dropped their 4th in a row losing to the Carolina Panthers 17-3 even though they had more total yards. It, obviously, did not help they turned the ball over three times and they were only 2/12 converting 3rd downs. Winston did not have a good Game and while he passed for 210 yards he had 0 TD, 2 INT, and was sacked three times. Two players had at least 60 receiving yards, but DeSean Jackson has not been making the big plays this season that the team brought him in to do and he only had 37 receiving yards in the bad loss to Carolina. Doug Martin rushed for 71 of the Bucs 85 rushing yards in the Game, but only averaged 3.9 yards per carry.

The Saints won their 5th in a row in their last Game beating the Chicago Bears 20-12. New Orleans did not play well on 3rd down and had more turnovers (2-1), but they had 80 more total yards and had a 14-3 halftime lead. Brees passed for 299 yards and while he did not have a TD he was not picked off. He did spread the wealth around with Four players having at least 48 receiving yards led by Michael Thomas with 77 yards in the air. Mark Ingram led the Saints with 75 rushing yards and a TD and he had rushed for at least 105 yards in each of his last three Games.

Tampa Bay ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing defense, but only 27th in pass D and that is not good heading to New Orleans with facing Brees.

The Bucs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road Games, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games overall, and in their last 4 road Games the Over record is 4-0.

The Saints are -1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Games overall, and in their last 10 Games the Over record is 7-3.

Jason’s Pick: The Bucs have lost Four in a row, are 0-3 on the road, and their only wins have come against the Bears and Giants, who have Four combined wins. The Saints are en fuego and look for Brees to have a big Game in this one and for the New Orleans’ D to play well, as the Saints will get the win and cover in their house for their 6th straight win sending the reeling Bucs to their 5th straight loss.

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