Dolphins – Chiefs Week 16 ATS Pick

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Dolphins

vs. 

Chiefs  

Week 16

NFL Pick
 
12/24/17
 
By: Jason Green
 
 Miami Dolphins (6-8 SU 5-7-2 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6 SU 8-6 ATS)
 
 The Dolphins had won two in a row, iNCluding a shocking win over the Patriots, before losing their last Game, which took them out of the playoff picture. Miami does have some legit wins on the season and they are only two Games under .500 even though they only rank 26th in the league in ppg and tied for 26th in points allowed. The Fish can only play spoiler in this Game, but oddsmakers don’t think they will do it as 11.5-point underdogs.
 
 At 5 dimes sportsbook the Lions are the 11.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5.
 
 The Chiefs have rebounded from losing Four in a row by winning their last two Games and with only two Games left they only need one more win or one Chargers loss to win the AFC title. They have really won the Games they have needed lately against a couple of division foes in the Raiders and Chargers where their D really stepped up only giving up 15 and 13 points, respectively, in their last two Games. Alex Smith may be a Pro Bowl snub, but still leads an offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in passing yards per Game and 6th in the league in ppg.
 
 These teams have not met since the 2014 season.
 
 The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five Games between these teams.
 
 In their last Game the Dolphins playoff hopes were dashed with their 24-16 road loss to the Buffalo Bills. Miami had more overall yards (349-328) and outscored Buffalo 10-0 in the 4th quarter, but they shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers while they did not force one. Jay Cutler did pass for 274 yards, but he had no TD and was picked off three times and Jarvis LAndry and DeVante Parker combined for 188 receiving yards. Kenyan Drake rushed for 78 yards and averaged nearly five yards per carry, but the Dolphins had to go to the air to try the comeback, but look for him to get a big workload in this Game, especially since the Chiefs only rank 27th in the league defending the run.
 
 The Chiefs are coming off a HUGE home win over the San Diego Chargers beating their division rival 30-13. KC had 90 more overall yards in the Game (397-307), but it helped that they outscored the Chargers 20-7 in the 2nd half and for the Game forced Four turnovers and did not commit one. Alex Smith passed for 231 yards with two TD, setting a career high in TD passes, with no picks and Tyreek Hill led the team with 88 receiving yards and a score. Kareem Hunt had a big Game rushing for 155 yards with a TD and averaging 6.5 yards per carry and in the last two wins he has rushed for at least 116 yards. The Dolphins rank 15th in the league in pass defense and 13th in run defense and the D has to keep the Chiefs from getting the big lead, so Cutler will not have to do it all.
 
 The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road Games, 2-5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games, and in their last 4 road Games they have an Over record of 4-0.
 
 The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home Games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games after a straight up win, and they have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games.
 
 Jason’s Pick: The Chiefs can lock up the AFC West title with a win and they will do just that. I think they will lay a beat down on the Dolphins, as they will cover at home even giving up double digits in points.