Dolphins – Panthers Week 10 NFL Spread Winner

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Week 10

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green

Miami Dolphins (4-4 SU 3-3-2 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (6-3 SU 5-4 ATS)

The Dolphins have lost two in a row and with their last loss they dropped to .500. Kind of surprising they are even at .500, as they rank dead last in the league in ppg and their defense has been mediocre at best. In their last two Games Miami has given up 40 points and 27 points respectively. While Jay Cutler is listed as questionable for this Game he will start under center and he leads a passing offense that only ranks 29th in the league.

At 5 dimes sportsbook this Game has the Panthers as the 10-point favorite with a total of 38.5.

The Panthers have won two in a row and in those Games they played solid defense only giving up a total of 20 points. They are in 2nd place in the NFC South only ½ Game back of the New Orleans Saints, who they already lost to oNCe this season. The rushing offense has been pretty good for Carolina and the team is led by their defense, which ranks 4th in the league giving up an average of only 17.7 ppg.

These teams have not met since the 2013 season in Miami where the Panthers beat the Dolphins 20-16.

In their last Game the Dolphins lost to the Oakland Raiders 27-24 . Miami had more overall yards in the Game (395 to 379) and had fewer turnovers (2-1), but they were only 5/12 on 3rd down conversions while Oakland was 8/15. Cutler passed for 311 yards in the Game with 3 TD and 0 INT and was only sacked one time. Julius Thomas led five players that had at least 32 receiving yards with 82 yards and he also hauled in a TD. Kenyan Drake led the Dolphins with 69 yards, but 42 of those yards came on one run and Damien Williams only rushed for 14 yards on seven carries.

Cutler and company have a tall task in this Game facing a Carolina defense that ranks 6th in the league defending the run and 2nd defending the pass.

The Panthers are coming off a big 20-17 win over NFC South foe Atlanta in their last Game where they had a little luck on their side. Atlanta star WR dropped a wide open TD catch late in the Game that would have given the Falcons the lead. Carolina had 25 fewer yards in the Game and two turnovers while only forcing one, but they rushed for 201 yards while holding the Falcons to only Cam Newton was 13./24 for 137 yards with 0 TD and 0 INT and Devin FuNChess was his main target by far with 86 receiving yards. Newton also led the Panthers with 86 rushing yards and he and Christian McCaffrey combined for 154 yards on the ground.

Miami ranks 14th in the league in pass defense and 7th in run defense.

The Dolphins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Games in November, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Monday Night Games, and in their last 5 road Games the Under record is 4-1.

The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home Games, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Games after an ATS win, and in their last 8 home Game the Under record is 5-2-1.

Jason’s Pick: The Panthers have won two straight and host the Dolphins, who have dropped two in a row and have failed to cover in their last seven Monday Night Games. Yeah, even giving 10 points have to take Carolina. They will lean heavily on the run and play solid defense winning and covering the spread for their 3rd straight overall win.