Lions
vs.
Bengals
Week 16
NFL Pick
12/24/17
By: Jason Green
Detroit Lions (8-6 SU 7-6-1 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-9 SU 7-7 ATS)
After losing two in a row the Lions have rebounded to win two in a row to keep their playoff hopes alive. They likely need to win out and then still get some help to make the post-season. While Detroit has won two straight they both were less than impressive wins over a couple of teams that are well under .500. They are all about Matthew Stafford, as the passing offense is legit while the run Game only ranks 31st in the league in rushing yards per Game and the defense only ranks 25th in points against.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Lions are the 4.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5.
The nightmare season for the Bengals has gotten worse in the last few Games, as they have lost three in a row and have been blown out in their last two Games. They have only totaled seven points in each of their last two Games and they rank dead last in rushing yards per Game, 28th in passing yards per Game, and 29th in ppg. While the CiNCy D ranks a respectable 15th in the league they have given up 33 and 34 points, respectively, in the last two Games.
These teams have not met since the 2013 season.
The road team has covered the spread in the last Four Games between these teams.
In their last Game the Lions were at home and they beat the Chicago Bears 20-10. Detroit had fewer yards in the Game (349 to 293), but they stuffed the run and forced three turnovers while only committing one. Stafford passed for 237 yards with a couple of TD and no INT and Marvin Jones Jr. led the squad with 85 receiving yards. Stafford has not gotten much help from the backfield and in the win over the Bears they rushed for 91 yards with Theo Reddick leading the way with 49 rushing yards.
While the Bengals’ D has taken their licks in their last two Games this Game sets up for them well on defense, as they rank 8th in the league against the pass, but dead last against the run, but the Lions run Game is a less than stellar one.
The Bengals were blown out in their last Game for the 2nd Game in a row losing to the Minnesota Vikings on the road 34-7. They were down 24-0 at the half and they were dominated only having 161 yards while the Vikings had 346 yards and on top of that CiNCy had two turnovers and they only rushed for a grand total of 46 yards. Andy Dalton has a Game to forget with only 113 passing yards with no TD and two INT and after a solid stretch of Games he has one TD and three INT in his last two Games where he has only totaled 246 passing yards. Giovani Bernard led the team with 30 rushing yards and averaged a weak 2.1 yards per rush. Dalton needs to get back on track and he may just do that facing a Lions’ pass D that GAve up a lot of passing yards in their last Game and only ranks 28th in the league overall.
The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Games against a team with a losing record, 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 Games after an ATS win, and in their last 5 road Games they have an Over record of 4-1.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous Game and in their last 22 Games the Under record is 15-7.
Jason’s Pick; The Lions have not looked great in their last two Games, but they have won and are fighting for their playoff lives. They will get the W in this Game behind Stafford and facing a CiNCy team that is reeling. Detroit will get the W and cover the spread staying alive in the playoff picture with one Game left in the regular season.