By: Jason Green
Minnesota Vikings (11-3 SU 10-4 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-7 SU 7-7 ATS)
The Vikings only have one loss in their last 11 Games and they already have the NFC North crown wrapped up. They still have a lot to play for one Game back of the Eagles for the best record in the Conference while three other teams are at 10-4. So, of the team finishes well they may get a bye or the #1 seed in the NFC, but if they falter they will not get a bye. Case Keenum has been legit on the season and is getting some MVP buzz, but Minnesota’s D is the main star ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Vikings are the 10-point favorite with a total of 40.5.
The Packers lost their last Game, which put them out of the playoff picture and they put Aaron Rodgers on IR ending his season with the team out of the race. They had won two in a row before a loss in their last Game, but they were not the same when Rodgers went down, which was in the first match up with the Vikings, which Green Bay lost 23-10. Without Rodgers the Packers have to play better defense, which is not their strong suit ranking 21st in the league in points allowed.
The underdog has covered the spread in five of the last six Games between these division rivals and the Packers are the biggest home underdog they have been since the 1988 season.
The Vikings are coming off an easy 34-7 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in their last Game where they outscored CiNCy 24-0 in the first half. They had 346 total yards and dominated on defense holding the Bengals to only 161 yards and they also forced two turnovers. Keenum passed for 236 yards with two TD and no INT and Jerick McKinnon led the team with 114 receiving yards. Minnesota rushed for 124 yards with LAtavius Murray GAlloping for 76 of them even though he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Keenum has two TD in each of his last Four Games with only two picks in that span. Green Bay only ranks 24th in the league in pass defense and 20th in run defense.
In their last Game the Packers lost to the Carolina Panthers 31-24 where they had a chance even recovering an onside kick, but Rodgers was picked off to ice the win for the Panthers. Green Bay only had three fewer yards, but they had Four turnovers while they did not force one. The team will go back to Brett Hundley, who was less than stellar with Rodgers out for several Games with eight TD while having nine INT and three fumbles as well. After rushing for 113 yards in a win over the Buccaneers RB Jamaal Williams has only totaled 79 yards in his last two Games where he failed to rush for over 3.3 yards per carry in either of them. Hundley and company have a tall task facing a Minnesota D that ranks 3rd in the league in pass defense and 2nd in run defense.
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road Games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous Game, and in their last 5 road Games they have an Over record of 4-1.
The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games against a team with a winning record, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous Game, and in their last 27 Games they have an Over record of 21-6.
Jason’s Pick: I think the Vikings will win this Game, but at home the Packers will keep it close. Their D will play well and give Minnesota some issues and Hundley will step up. Take Green Bay in this one to, at least, cover the spread.