49ers – Packers Free NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers

vs.

Green Bay Packers 

Week 6

NFL Pick

10/15/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

San Francisco 49ers (1-4 SU 1-4 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2-1 SU 2-3 ATS)

The 49ers have not had the best start of the season to say the least at 1-4 and they lost starting QB Jimmy GAroppolo for the season with a knee injury. San Fran has been able to run the ball ranking 4th in the league in rushing yards per Game and their offense has been ok, but turnovers have hurt that as has a defense that ranks 29th giving up an average of 29.2 ppg. 

The Packers have lost two of their last three Games and in each loss they GAve up 31 points. Aaron Rodgers had two fumbles in the last Game and with his lingering knee injury he has not looked like the Rodgers we are used to seeing. Green Bay really needs a win in this NFC matchup to keep pace with the other teams in the wide-open NFC North. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Packers are a 9.5-point home favorite with a total sitting at 46.5. 

This season the 49ers are 1-4 ATS with an O/U record of 4-1 and the Packers are 2-3 ATS with an O/U record of 4-1. 

These teams have not met since the 2015 season. 

The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home Games against the 49ers. 

In their last Game the 49ers allowed the Arizona Cardinals to get their first win of the season beating them 28-18. The 49ers dominated the Game with 447 total yards of offense while holding the Cardinals to only 220 yards, but they had five turnovers and did not force any. 

In the loss to the Cardinals C.J. Beathard passed for 349 yards with two TD and the team rushed for 147 yards, but the backup QB not only had two INT, but he also lost Four fumbles. Matt Breida ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, but he is doubtful for this Monday night’s Game. Beathard has to avoid the turnover and Alfred Morris has to have a good Game on the ground for San Fran to pull off the big upset in this Game. 

After shutting out the Buffalo Bills the Packers GAve up 31 points in their last Game in a 31-23 loss to the Detroit Lions. Green Bay was down 24-0 at the half and they made a solid effort at a comeback, which did not pan out. 

The Packers loss to the Lions mirrored the 49ers loss to the Cardinals. San Francisco outGAined Detroit 521 yards to 264 yards, but they committed three turnovers, two by Rodgers deep in Lions’ territory, and did not force any. Rodgers did pass for 442 yards and Four players had at least 68 receiving yards, but the turnovers hurt and Green Bay did not go to the ground as much as they should have since they had to mount a big comeback. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

49ers

1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games 

25-6 ATS in their last 31 Monday Night Games

Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games 

 

Packers

2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games

1-6 ATS in their last 7 Games facing teams from the NFC 

Over record of 22-8 in their last 30 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Packers are giving neatly 10 points in this Game, but it does not matter. Look for Rodgers to have a big Game and Green Bay to run the ball often. The Packers will lay a home beat down on the 49ers easily winning and covering the spread on prime time on Monday Night.