49ers – Vikings Free NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers

vs.

Minnesota Vikings

Preview 

9/9/18   

By: Jason Green 

  

San Francisco 49ers (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS)

The Kirk Cousins era begins in Minnesota, as he takes over under center after coming to them via free ageNCy and the team broke the bank to sign him. No shock that they did, as they have the defense and while Case Keenum was solid for them last season they needed an upgrade. They got that in Cousins, who passed for 81 TD in the last three seasons while the Vikings have 59 passing TD in that span. 

Cousins joins a Vikings’ squad that has offensive weapons as well as a great defense. Last season Minnesota’s defense ranked first in the NFL only allowing 15.8 ppg and at home they only allowed 12.5 ppg. 

The 49ers have high hopes this season after last season’s 6-10 campaign and the main reason is QB Jimmy GAroppolo. After coming to the Bay Area in a trade with the New England Patriots he guided the 49ers to five wins in their last five Games. He is undefeated as a starter in the league and that streak is in jeopardy on the road in the LAnd of 10,000 LAkes taking on the Vikings’ great D and their new QB. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Vikings are a 6-point favorite with a total sitting at 46. 

Last season the 49ers were 9-7 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 8-8 and the Vikings were 11-7 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 9-9. 

The last time these teams met it was in the 2015 season in Minnesota where the 49ers beat the Vikings 20-3. 

The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last nine Games between these teams. 

GAroppolo enters his 5th season in the league and his first as a legit starter and last season even in only six Games for the 49ers he led the team in passing yards (1,560 yards) and had seven TD and five INT. He does not have a great WR corps to deal with, but a decent one and last season Marquise Goodwin and Pierre GArcon combined for 1,462 yards, but only combined for two TD. 

The running Game may be an issue for the 49ers and last season’s leading rusher in Carlos Hyde is now with the Browns. Matt Breida is the team’s leading returning RB rushing for 465 yards last season, but he is questionable for this Game with an injury. The team signed Alfred Morris in the off-season and with the loss of Jerick McKinnon for the season he may be the #1 RB this season for San Fran. 

Cousins comes to a Vikings’ squad that has a killer defense and some weapons on offense. Last season WR Adam Thielen had 1,276 yards and Four TD and Stefon Diggs had 849 yards and eight TD. LAtavius Murray led the team with 842 rushing yards last season, but Dalvin Cook should be the main guy and he returns after missing most of last season with a knee injury. In the Four Games Cook did play he averaged a legit 4.8 yards per carry. 

While the 49ers defense was balanced last season it was not good balaNCe ranking 22nd in the league in both pass defense and run defense. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

49ers 

4-1 ATS in their last 5 road Games

4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games overall

6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games in Week 1

 

Vikings 

42-19 ATS in their last 61 Games overall

34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home Games

1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC

Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 home Games 

Jason’s Pick: The 49ers will be a better team this season with GAroppolo under center for the whole season, but the Vikings are a legit Super Bowl team. They have the defense and offensive weapons and signed Cousins in the off-season hoping he can be the last piece to the puzzle. Minnesota will not blow out San Fran in this season opener, but Cousins will have a good debut, the team will get the W, and they will cover the spread.