Bears – Lions NFL Pick against the Spread

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Chicago Bears

vs.

Detroit Lions 

ATS Trends

NFL Pick

11/22/2018  

 

By: Jason Green 

  

Chicago Bears (7-3 SU 7-3 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (4-6 SU 5-5 ATS)

The Bears have won Four in a row and in their Sunday Night win over the Minnesota Vikings they really took control of the NFC North. They are sitting at 7-3 with Minnesota at 5-4-1 and the Packers at 4-5-1. Mitchell Trubisky has been solid under center in his 2nd year in the league and the team is very balanced ranking in the top five in the league in both ppg and points allowed. 

The Lions snapped their three-Game losing streak in their last Game with a solid home win over the Carolina Panthers. Detroit is still two Games under .500, but if they can catch fire they can get back in the playoff race. The Detroit D has been up and down on the season, but they have to play better on that side of the ball then they did a couple of weeks back in their loss to the Bears where they GAve up 34 points and GAve up over 400 yards of total offense. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Bears are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total that has not been yet posted. 

This season the Bears are 7-3 ATS with an O/U record of 7-3 and the Lions are 6-4 ATS with an O/U record of 6-4. 

These teams met in Chicago a couple of weeks back and the Bears beat the Lions 34-22. 

While the Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five Games facing the Lions they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight Games facing them in Detroit. 

In their last Game, the Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings 25-20. They held on for the win even though they GAve up 17 points in the 4th quarter and for the Game they had 308 yards, they held Minnesota to 268 yards, and they stuffed the run. 

Trubisky did not have the best Game facing the Vikings passing for 165 yards with one TD and two INT, but the team rushed for 148 yards led by Jordan Howard, who rushed for 63 yards and Trubisky rushed for 43 yards. In the win over the Lions a couple of weeks back Trubisky went off passing for 355 yards with three TD and no INT and the Lions have to keep that from happening again. Chicago will be facing a Detroit pass D that ranks in the middle of the pack while their run defense only ranks 24th. 

In the Lions last Game, they were at home and beat the Carolina Panthers 20-19. While they GAve up 331 passing yards and three passing TD they held the Panthers to only 56 rushing yards and the Lions forced the Game’s only turnover. 

Matthew Stafford passed for 220 yards with a TD and no INT, Kenny Golladay had 113 receiving yards with a TD, and Kerryon Johnson rushed for 87 yards averaging a legit 5.8 yards per carry. Johnson was injured in the win over Carolina, but he should play in this Thanksgiving Game. 

Stafford may have to carry the load in this Game, as Chicago has the top ranked run defense in the league and rank 12th in pass defense. While he passed for 274 yards with two TD in the matchup facing Chicago a couple of weeks back he also had two INT and faced a Bears’ pass rush that ranks 4th in the league in sacks. 

 

Key ATS Trends 

Bears

4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games 

6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games facing a team with a losing record 

Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 Games 

 

Lions  

5-2 ATS in their last 7 home Games 

4-10 ATS in their last 14 Games facing a team with a winning record 

Over record of 5-12 in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record 

 

Jason’s Pick:  The Lions were solid in their last Game and are at home on Thanksgiving, but those things will not matter. The Bears are rolling and playing well on both sides of the ball and this Thursday they will win and cover in the Motor City really taking control of the NFC North.