Bengals – Chiefs Free NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals


Kansas City Chiefs 

Week 7

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green 


Cincinnati Bengals (4-2 SU 4-2 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1 SU 6-0 ATS)


The Bengals are coming off a tough loss where they GAve up a TD to the Pittsburgh Steelers with only 10 seconds left in the Game. Still, they are tied with the Baltimore Ravens atop the AFC North. While only ranking 17th in the league in passing yards per Game and 25th in rushing yards per Game CiNCy ranks a solid 6th in the league in ppg. The main issue is their D, which ranks 23rd in the league in points allowed and that is not good on the road facing the Chiefs and their dynamic offense. 

The Chiefs lost their first Game of the season in their last Game, but showed they are legit losing to the New England Patriots 43-40 on the road after being down 23-9 at halftime. Patrick Mahomes leads an offense loaded with weapons that ranks 2nd in the league in ppg. Like the Bengals the Chiefs have struggled on defense ranking 27th in the league in points allowed per Game. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chiefs are a 6-point home favorite with a total sitting at 57.5. 

This season the Bengals are 4-2 ATS with an O/U record of 4-2 and the Chiefs are 6-0 ATS with an O/U record of 4-2.

The last time these two AFC teams met was in the 2015 season.  

The Bengals are coming off a 28-21 loss to the Steelers in their last Game and while the Game was a close one they GAve up over 200 more total yards (481 to 275). CiNCy only scored seven points in the 2nd half and only rushed for 62 yards. 

Andy Dalton has put together a pretty good season so far and he passed for 229 yards with two TD and no INT in the loss to Pittsburgh. He has star WR A.J. Green and a solid WR corps, but could use some help from the run Game. Joe Mixon leads the team in rushing and against the Steelers he rushed for 64 yards averaging a solid 5.8 yards per carry. It is key that CiNCy pounds the rock in this Game copying the playbook of the Patriots win over the Chiefs in their last Game, as that will help keep Mahomes and the KC offense on the sidelines. 

The Chiefs only rank 27th in the league in run defense and 31st in pass defense and in the loss to New England in their last Game they GAve up 541 total yards. 

The Chiefs lost a barnburner in their last Game and while Mahomes put up huge numbers and had Four TD he also had two INT for the 2nd straight Game, Still, the CiNCy defense has their hands full trying to contain him, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Travis Kelse, and WR Tyreek hill. Facing Mahomes and company the Bengals pass defense is vital, but they have struggled in that area this season only ranking 28th in the league against the pass. 


Key Betting Trends 


4-0 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record

6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games 

5-2 ATS in their last 7 road Games 

Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 road GAms 



5-1 ATS in their last 6 home Games

10-1 ATS in their last 11 Games 

Under record of 46-20 in their last 66 home Games 


Jason’s Pick: The Bengals are 2-1 on the road this season, but their two road wins have come facing team that have a combined record of 3-9. They will not be able to keep up with the Chiefs and their great offense and there is no way they can get into a shootout with them. KC is playing their 2nd straight Sunday Night Game and unlike the last one they will get the W in this one and cover the spread sending CiNCy to their 2nd straight loss. 

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