Bills – Jags Wildcard Free Pick against the Spread

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Bills

vs.

Jaguars

NFL

Wild Card

1/7/18
 
By: Jason Green
 
 Buffalo Bills (9-7 SU 9-6-1 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7 SU 8-8 ATS)
 
 The Bills needed a lot of things to happen to make the playoffs and they all did, iNCluding them winning their finale, and they head to the Sunshine State for their first post-season appearaNCe in 16 seasons. Buffalo won three of their last Four Games on the season and for them to pull off the upset in this Game their defense will have to play well and get it done facing the Jax D, which is ranked 2nd in the league in terms of points allowed.
 
 At 5 dimes sportsbook the Chiefs are the 9.5-point favorite with a total of 39.5.
 
 The Jaguars don’t come into this Game with a full head of steam losing their last two Games of the season, but they did win the AFC South. Jacksonville and Buffalo are far from playoff experieNCed so this Game could be a close one. The Jags have the top-ranked rushing offense in the league to go along with their great defense and they are nearly a double-digit favorite in this Wild Card match up.
 
 These teams met last season in Buffalo where the Bills beat the Jaguars 28-21.
 
 The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven Games between these teams.
 
 In their regular season finale on the road the Bills got a must-win W in their 22-16 win over the Miami Dolphins. They had fewer overall yards than Miami (356-312), but they forced the Game’s only turnover and they defended the run well. Tyron Taylor passed for 204 yards with a TD and no INT, but he was sacked Four times. He spread the wealth around and Charles Clay was the only target with over 217 receiving yards with 60 on six receptions. The Bills rushed for 126 yards with Marcus Murphy leading the way with 41 yards on the ground and the lead back for Buffalo and their key player in RB LeSean McCoy had a bad Game and is questionable for this one with an ankle injury.
 
 In Jacksonville last three home Games they have only given up a total of 41 points.
 
 The Jaguars ended the season on the road and ended with a loss falling to the Tennessee Titans 15-10. They turned the ball over Four times while only forcing one and that was the key since they only were outGAined by three total yards. Blake Bortles was picked off twice with no TD and 158 yards and RB Leonard Fournette was the big gun on offense with 69 rushing yards, only averaging 3.6 yards per carry, and he had Four catches for 67 receiving yards. Jax is led by their D, but their offense has to move the chains against a Buffalo D that ranks 20th in the league defending the pass and 29th defending the run.
 
 The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games after an ATS win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff Games, and in their last 13 Games facing a team with a winning record they have an Over record of 9-4.
 
 The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games after a straight up loss, and in their last 14 home Games they have an Over record of 10-4.

 
 Jason’s Pick: This Game is between a couple of teams that have not made the playoffs in a long while and it will be a close one. I think the Jags will win behind their running Game, but the Bills will cover the spread.

 

Bettorsworld Pick – Not crazy about this one and can see where Jasons call on the Bills hold some water. However, we’re going to lay the hefty number in this one with the Jags at home.

The Bills were not a very good road team with a record of 3-5 and they were outscored by a 25-18 margin in those Games. Our model has the Jags on top by a score of 25-14 indicating that it feels the Jags defense will be the story in this one. Jags -8.5