Broncos – Chargers NFL Pick with Analysis and Trends

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Denver Broncos

vs.

L.A. Chargers 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends

11/18/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Denver Broncos (3-6 SU 3-5-1 ATS) vs. L.A. Chargers (7-2 SU 5-4 ATS)

Things don’t look good for the Broncos, who have lost two in a row and five of their last six Games. They are well out of the playoff picture and while their stats are not bad they have played a tough Schedule. Of their six losses Four of them have come against teams that are well over .500. In Denver’s last two Games they have played the 9-1 Chiefs and 6-3 Texans and have lost by a combined nine points. 

The Chargers are rolling winners of six in a row and in that streak, they have only faced one team that currently has a winning record. However, their only losses on the season have come facing the Rams and Chiefs, who have a combined two losses. Phillip Rivers leads a balanced team that ranks 10th in the league in ppg and 8th in points allowed. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chargers are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 46.5. 

This season the Broncos are 3-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-5-1 and the Chargers are 5-4 ATS with an O/U record of 5-4. 

This is the first Game between these AFC West rivals this season and the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five Games facing the Broncos. 

In their last Game, the Broncos were at home and they lost to the Houston Texans 6-3. They had a chance to win, but missed a 51-yard field goal as time expired. Denver held Houston to only 290 yards, they had 348 yards, but they had the Game’s only turnover and they only rushed for 75 yards. 

Case Keenum passed for 290 yards with one TD and no INT and Jeff Heuerman led the Broncos with 83 receiving yards. Phillip Lindsay rushed for 60 yards, but only averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Keenum has not been bad this season, but has not played great like he did last season for the Vikings. Lindsay had rushed for at least 90 yards and averaged at least five yards per carry in his previous two Games before the loss to the Texans. 

The Chargers rank 17th in the league in both pass defense and run defense and they have played well in the red zone not allowing TD’s. 

The Chargers were on the road in their last Game and had a great defensive performance in their 20-6 win over the Oakland Raiders. The stats were similar in the Game in overall yards and rushing yards and L.A. was outGAined 135-6 in the first quarter, but they only GAve up three points. 

Rivers passed for 223 yards with two TD and one pick and RB Melvin Gordon had a big Game leading the Bolts with 72 receiving yards and a TD and also rushed for 93 yards averaging a solid 5.3 yards per carry. The Broncos’ pass D has been pretty solid on the season, but their run D only ranks 22nd in the league. Von Miller ranks 3rd in the league in sacks and he needs to step up in this Game and play well on the line getting to Rivers and helping with the run. 

 

Broncos ATS Trends

2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games facing a team with a winning record

3-11 ATS in their last 14 road Games

Under record of 5-2-1 in their last 8 Games

Denver is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Games following a loss 

Denver is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 Games following a ATS loss 

Denver is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road Games vs  a team with a winning home record 

Denver is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Games in November 

Denver is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road Games 

Denver is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Games as an underdog  

Denver is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 Games overall 

Denver is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs  AFC 

Denver is 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 Games on grass 

 

Chargers  ATS Trends

5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a losing record

4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games

Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games 

Chargers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home Games  

Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Games in November  

Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games overall 

Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs  AFC 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Broncos have had some tough luck and have faced some good teams this season, but have not been able to beat them. Look for the same thing in this Game, as while they will play well and keep it pretty close the Chargers will still win at home and cover the spread even giving seven points.