Cleveland Browns
vs.
Oakland Raiders
NFL Pick
Week 4
9/30/18
By: Jason Green
Cleveland Browns (1-1-1 SU 3-0 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-3 SU 1-2 ATS)
The Baker Mayfield era in Cleveland is here, as the #1 pick in the last draft will get his first NFL start. He came in after Tyrod Taylor got injured in their last Game and played great in helping the Browns end their 18-Game winless streak. The rookie will be facing a winless Oakland team that ranks 22nd in the league allowing an average of 27 ppg.
The Jon Gruden era has not gotten off to a good start for the Raiders, to say the least, as the team is winless. The team has fallen apart in the 2nd half of Games, as through three Games they have outscored their opponents 35-17 in the first half and have been outscored 64-17 in the 2nd half. The defense is not the same without Khalil MACk, who has been great in Chicago and has 15 pressures this season, which is the same amount as the whole Raiders’ team.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Raiders are a 3-point favorite with a total sitting at 45.
This season the Browns are 3-0 ATS with an O/U record of 1-2 and the Raiders are 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 1-2.
These teams met last in the 2015 season.
The Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Games facing the Raiders.
In their last Game the Browns won for the first time since the 2016 season beating the New York Jets 21-17. Cleveland had a more balanced Game on offense and forced three turnovers. When Mayfield came in the Game for his pro debut he shined going 17/23 for 201 yards with no TD and no INT. Jarvis LAndry had a great Game with 103 receiving yards and Carlos Hyde had 98 rushing yards averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
The Browns’ defense was solid in their win over the Jets holding them to only 268 total yards with two picks and a fumble recovery. On the season Cleveland ranks 12th in the league defending the pass and 16th defending the run.
The Raiders are off to a terrible start and they start great and finish bad. They lost their last Game 28-20 to the Miami Dolphins where they were outscored 14-3 in the 4th quarter. They out-GAined the Dolphins and had 25 first downs while Miami only had 13, but also committed the Game’s only turnovers.
Derek Carr did pass for 345 yards against the Dolphins, but only had one TD and had two INT. Jordy Nelson had a big Game with 173 receiving yards, but Carr has not gotten on the same page with Amari Cooper and that has hurt the ability for Oakland to make the big play. Marshawn LyNCh rushed for 64 yards, but only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. The Raiders need a win and they need it bad and they have to get the rock to Cooper, give Carr time in the pocket, and not fall apart in the 2nd half.
Key Betting Trends
Browns
3-10 ATS in their last 13 Games facing a team with a losing record
3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road Games
Over record of 11-5 in their last 16 road Games
Raiders
4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 Games
1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road Games
Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 home Games
Under record of 9-1 in their last 10 Games
Jason’s Pick: Mayfield may the real deal and the Browns are a team that is on the way up, but not giving up on the Raiders. I think Carr and Cooper have a big Game in this AFC eNCounter and the Oakland defense will have a good Game. It will be close and while the rookie QB may have a solid first NFL start the Raiders will spoil it by winning and they will also cover the spread.