Buccaneers
vs.
Bears
NFL Pick
Week 4
9/30/18
By: Jason Green
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1 SU 2-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (2-1 SU 2-1 ATS)
The magic for the Buccaneers ran out in their last Game where they lost their first Game of the season falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-27. Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 411 yards in the Game and he leads the league in passing yards. However, will he even get the start in this Game? Jameis Winston is back from his three-Game suspension, but will overtake Fitzpatrick, who has led the Bucs to two wins and has guided an offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in ppg?
The Bears have won two in a row and while their lackluster offense continues to struggle their defense has gotten it done. Khalil MACk has been great on the season for his new team and has Four stacks as well as forcing a fumble in his first three Games for the Bears. The D will key for Chicago since their offense is not a dynamic one.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Bears are a 3-point favorite with a total sitting at 46.5.
This season the Bucs are 2-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-0 and the Bears are 2-1 ATS with an O/U record of 1-2.
These teams met early last season in the Sunshine State where the Bucs beat the Bears 29-7.
The Bucs lost their last Game to the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-27 and while there has been Fitz-magic in Tampa Bay the team still has major issues. Sure, they rank first in the league in passing yards per Game and tied for 3rd in ppg, which they rank 29th in opponents’ points allowed and the run Game has not helped out much. Mike Evans ranks 2nd in the league in receiving yards and he and DeSean Jackson, who ranks 7th in the league in receiving yards, go up against a Chicago pass D that ranks 11th in the NFL.
The starter for the Bucs has not been named as of Wednesday morning, but whoever takes the snaps under center has some talent. Mike Evans ranks 2nd in the league in receiving yards and DeSean Jackson ranks 7th. Still, it has been pass the whole way for Tampa, who have struggled on D and only rank 30th in the league in rushing yards per Game.
The Bears beat the Arizona Cardinals in their last Game 16-14. Chicago GAve up 14 first quarter points, but then shut them out the rest of the Game. MACk and the defense is the strength of the team and while Mitchell Trubisky has shown promise in his 2nd season the Bears still only rank 28th in the league in passing yards per Game. Jordan Howard leads the team in rushing with 178 yards, but in his last two Games has averaged a paltry 2.5 yards per carry in each Game.
Chicago will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that is tied for last in the NFL defending the pass, but a legit 3rd defending the run. Can Trubisky take advantage of that? Big question.
Key Betting Trends
Buccaneers
4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games following a loss
5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games overall
Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games
Bears
4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games
1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record
10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home Games
Under record of 8-1 in their last 9 Games
Jason’s Pick: I tend to think Winston will get the start for the Bucs since he is the face of the fraNChise, but think that is a bad idea. In his first Game back he would be facing MACk and a solid Chicago defense in their house. The Bears’ D will be the differeNCe maker in this Game, as they will play well against Tampa Bay and the offense will do just enough to get the W. The Bears will win this Game and cover the spread moving to 3-1 and sending the Buccaneers to their 2nd straight loss.