Chargers – Browns Free Pick against the Spread

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L.A. Chargers

vs.

Cleveland Browns 

Week 6 

NFL Pick

10/14/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

L.A. Chargers (3-2 SU 2-3 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-2-1 SU 4-1 ATS)

The Chargers have quietly gotten off to a good start at 3-2, which is a tad better than last season’s start where they lost their first Four Games of the season. I say quietly, as the undefeated Chiefs have gotten most of the press for the AFC West after their blazing 5-0 start. While the Chargers have not beaten any teams that currently have a winning record their two losses have come against the Chiefs and L.A. Rams, who are both at 5-0. 

The Baker Mayfield mania in Cleveland continues, as he got his first win as a starter in the last Game. While Mayfield is getting the ink, it is the rushing offense, which ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards per Game, and defense, ranking 12th in points against, that are the reasons the Browns already have two wins, which is two more than they had all last season. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chargers are a 1-point road favorite with a total sitting at 44.5. 

This season the Chargers are 2-3 ATS with an O/U record of 4-1 and the Browns are 4-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-3. 

These teams met last season in San Diego where the Chargers beat the Browns 19-10.  

The Browns have covered the spread in their last six Games facing the Chargers and in all of those Games Cleveland was the underdog. 

In their last Game the Chargers beat the Oakland Raiders 26-10 where they held Oakland to 289 total yards and they played the run well only giving up 41 rushing yards. Phillip Rivers had a great Game going 22/27 for 339 yards with two TD and no INT and five different players had at least 44 receiving yards led by Keenan Allen with 90 yards. The Bolts did not have the best ground Game, as Melvin Gordon led the team with 58 rushing yards, but only averaged 3.1 yards per carry. 

Rivers only has two picks this season and he will face a Cleveland pass defense that only ranks 27th in the league, but played well in their last Game. Gordon had been solid in two straight Games rushing for 184 yards before only going for 54 in the win over Oakland. 

The Browns had a defensive battle in their last Game in a 12-9 OT win over the Baltimore Ravens. Cleveland had 416 total yards in the Game and while they had trouble getting in the end zone they held the Ravens, who had 410 yards, to three field goals and they also forced two turnovers. Mayfield passed for 342 yards with a TD and an INT and he really spread the wealth with Four players that had at least 61 receiving yards. Carlos Hyde rushed for 63 yards and he averaged 3.7 yards per carry for the 2nd straight Game. 

While the Chargers only rank 19th in the league in pass defense they rank a legit 10th in run defense. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Chargers 

0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games after an ATS win 

1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games after a win of more than 14 points

Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road Games 

 

Browns 

7-17 ATS in their last 24 home Games

3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 Games facing a team with a winning record 

Under record of 17-5 in their last 22 home Games 

Jason’s Pick: Obviously, the Browns are a much better team this season and there is a lot of excitement in Cleveland because of it. Mayfield mania will continue for the Browns, but it will die down some after this Game. The reason is the Bolts will play great with Rivers having another big Game. The Chargers will win their 3rd in a row with a road W in this Game.