Cowboys – Texans Week 5 Free NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys

vs.

Houston Texans 

Week 5 

NFL Pick

10/7/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Dallas Cowboys (2-2 SU 1-3 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (2-2 SU 1-3 ATS)

 

The Cowboys are coming off a last second 26-24 win over the Detroit Lions and they are tied with the Eagles at 2-2 in 2nd place in the NFC East. They do not have to travel too far for the battle for the Lone Star State where they are three-point underdogs facing a 1-3 Texans’ team. 

Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliot had a big Game in the win over the Lions, but the passing Game has not been there nor has the scoring. America’s team ranks 30th in the league in ppg, but their D has been solid ranking 7th in points against. Dallas has not played a tough Schedule and their two wins have come against teams that have combined for two wins. 

The Texans got in the W column in their last Game beating the Indianapolis Colts 37-34 in OT. The offense does rank pretty good when it comes to passing and rushing yards per Game, but it has looked out of syNC. The oNCe great Houston defense has not been that this season to say the least even with a healthy J.J. Watt only ranking 21st in the league in points allowed. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Texans are a 3-point home favorite with a total sitting at 45.5. 

This season the Cowboys are 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 1-3 and the Texans are 1-3 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2. 

These teams have not faced each other since the 2014 season.  

Not many barnburners in the last few Games between these teams, as in the last Four meetings the total has gone Under every time. 

In the Cowboys’ win over the Lions in their last Game Dallas nailed a Game-winning field goal as time expired. They did give up 14 points in the 4th quarter, but had balaNCe on offense and Elliot had a big Game. The 3rd year RB had his breakout Game rushing for 152 yards and also leading the Cowboys with 88 receiving yards and a TD. Dak Prescott was efficient passing for 255 yards with two TD and no INT and it was the first time this season he passed for over 168 yards. 

Watt is doing his part ranking 2nd in the league in sacks and he also has Four forced fumbles. While he and Jadeveon Clowney (2 sacks) lead a Houston defense that ranks 10th against the run they only rank 27th against the pass.

In getting their first win of the season in their last Game beating the Colts 37-34 in OT they had a balanced Game on offense and they stuffed the run, but also were torched in the air giving up 437 passing yards. Deshaun Watson passed for 345 yards with two TD and a pick and DeAndre Hopkins went big for 169 receiving yards. The run Game totaled 119 yards, but only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. 

The Dallas defense has been pretty good on the season both against the pass and the run. In this Game, they may have to worry about Watson and Watkins as well as the run Game for Houston, which ranks 9th in the league in rushing yards per Game.  

 

Key Betting Trends 

Cowboys

1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Games after a win

5-1 ATS in their last 6 road Games facing a team with a losing home record 

Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 Games 

 

Texans

1-4 ATS in their last 5 home Games

1-8 ATS in their last 9 Games 

4-10 ATS in their last 14 Games after a win

Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 home Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: Hard to go with the Texans considering they have failed to cover in eight of their last nine Games. Not thrilled to pick the Cowboys in this one, as I am not a fan, but they will get it done in this non-Conference matchup. Dallas will ride Elliot and that is a good thing, as he will have another big Game. The Cowboys will not only cover the spread in this Game, but get the win as well.