Dolphins – Patriots Week 4 Free NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins

vs.

New England Patriots 

NFL Pick

9/30/18   

By: Jason Green 

  

Miami Dolphins (3-0 SU 3-0 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (1-2 SU 1-2 ATS)

The Dolphins are one of the surprise teams early in the season and their offense has been steady with Ryan Tannehill playing well after missing last season with a knee injury. The Miami defense does only rank 21st in the league giving up an average of 377.3 yards per Game, but they rank 2nd in takeaways and rank 5th in the league giving up an average of just 17.3 ppg. 

While the Dolphins have been a surprise it is surprising that the Patriots are sitting at 1-2 losing their last two Games. In their last Game they laid an egg in losing to the Detroit Lions 26-10 where they only had 209 yards of total offense. Hard to believe that a Tomn Brady led Pats team only ranks 26th in the league in passing yards per Game and 25th in ppg. On top of that that the New England defense ranks 28th in the league. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Patriots are a 7-point favorite with a total sitting at 47.5. 

This season the Dolphins are 3-0 ATS with an O/U record of 2-1 and the Patriots are 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 1-2. 

Last season these teams split their two meetings with each winning at home. 

The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six home Games facing the Dolphins. 

In the Dolphins last Game they beat the Oakland Raiders 28-20. The win was a costly one though losing impact DE William Hayes for the season with a knee injury. Miami won the Game despite being out-GAined 434 yards to 373 yards and they only had 13 first downs while Oakland had 25. The fish forced two turnovers and committed none and outscored the Raiders 14-3 in the 4th quarter. 

Tannehill passed for 289 yards with three TD and was not picked off and three players for the team had at least 61 receiving yards. The Dolphins only 41 yards with Tannehill being the leading rusher with 29 yards. Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore struggled big time to run the ball, but expect them to get a heavy workload in this AFC East matchup facing a New England run defense that ranks 2nd to last in the league. 

Was that the reigning AFC champion Patriots in their last Game? They only had 12 first downs, were 2/9 on 3rd downs, and Tom Brady only passed for 133 yards with a TD and an INT. The WR issues have been well documented for New England and they need some guys to step up and make plays. Rookie RB Sony Michel led the team with 51 rushing yards, but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. 

Brady has a good chance to get back on track in this Game, but he has to avoid the turnover. Miami only ranks 29th in the league in pass defense, but they lead the NFL with seven interceptions. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Dolphins  

1-5 ATS in their last 6 road Games

4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games after a win 

Over record of 10-4 in their last 14 Games

 

Patriots 

1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games

9-4 ATS in their last 13 Games after an ATS loss

15-6 ATS in their last 21 Games against a team with a winning record 

 

Jason’s Pick: I picked the Patriots last week and I was wrong and am picking them again in this Game, but will be right. Sure, the Pats have lost two in a row and face the Dolphins, who are 3-0, but New England will right their ship in this Game. Brady will have a big Game, the New England defense will be better than the last couple of Games, and the Patriots will win and cover evening their record at 2-2.

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