Falcons – Packers NFL Pick ATS Trends

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Atlanta Falcons


Green Bay Packers 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends


By: Jason Green 


Atlanta Falcons (4-8 SU 3-9 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-7-1 SU 4-7-1 ATS)


The reeling Falcons have lost Four in a row and they are in the basement of the NFC South. Man, remember when Matt Ryan led an Atlanta offense that was lighting up the scoreboard? Well, those days are in the past, in their last Game they had their worst offensive output in two decades and have failed to Scoreover 19 points in any of their last Four Games. 

Things have gone from pretty bad to really bad for the Packers. They have lost three in a row and five of their last six Games and in their last Game lost at home to the lowly Arizona Cardinals. After the Arizona Game head coach Mike McCarthy was fired after being at the helm of the team for 13 seasons. Aaron Rodgers had not looked himself and Green Bay has only scored 17 points in each of their last two Games. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Packers are a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 47.5. 

This season the Falcons are 3-9 ATS with an O/U record of 6-6 and the Packers are 4-7-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-6. 

These team met last season in Atlanta where the Falcons beat the Packers 34-23. 

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games facing the Packers and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five Games against them in Green Bay. 

The Falcons were at home in their last Game losing to the Baltimore Ravens 26-16. Hard to believe the scored 16 points since they only GAined 131 yards in the Game and one of their two TD came on a kick return. 

Matt Ryan passed for 131 yards with one TD and no INT and star WR Julio Jones only had two catches for 22 yards. Ryan was sacked three times losing 34 yards and Ito Smith did not help much at all being the lead rusher with only 22 yards averaging a weak 3.1 yards per carry. 

The Falcons will be facing a Packers’ defense that is solid against the pass, but only ranks 25th against the run. However, can the Falcons take advantage of that? Their run Game has struggled all season and lead rusher Tevin Coleman only has 14 rushing yards on 14 carries in his last two Games. 

In their last Game, the Packers were at home losing 20-17 to the Arizona Cardinals, who came into the Game with only two wins. Green Bay had more yards (325-315), but they allowed Arizona to rush for 182 yards. 

Rodgers almost led the Packers to a comeback marching them down the field very late in the Game, but Mason Crosby missed a 49-yard field goal as time expired that would have tied the Game. Rodgers passed for 233 yards with a TD and no picks and Davante Adams was his main target with 93 receiving yards and he hauled in the TD pass. Green Bay rushed for 98 yards, but led rusher Aaron Jones only had 36 yards and only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. 

Rodgers may look like Rodgers again in this Game facing an Atlanta pass defense that only ranks 26th in the league. Jones may get going as well against the Falcons run D that only ranks 27th. 


Key ATS Trends 


0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games

1-5 ATS in their last 6 road Games

Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games 



1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Games 

1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games after a loss

Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games 


Jason’s Pick: Both of these teams are reeling and it hard to believe in December both are, pretty much, out of the playoff picture. The Falcons are coming off a terrible Game and at frigid LAmbeau Field they will not fix their offensive woes. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin will be the interim head coach in this Game and Rodgers and the Packers D will play well winning and covering the spread sending Atlanta to their 5th straight loss.