Falcons – Steelers Week 5 Free NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons

vs.

Pittsburgh Steelers 

Week 5

NFL Pick

10/7/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Atlanta Falcons (1-3 SU 1-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1 SU 1-3 ATS)

 

This Game has to be the one on the Schedule between the two most disappointing teams so far this season. Both the Falcons and Steelers had legit Super Bowl aspirations, but each is sitting at 1-3 and the loser of this Game will really be behind the eight-ball. 

The Falcons have lost two in a row where they GAve up a total of 80 points and they only rank 30th in the league in points allowed per Game. Matt Ryan has put up pretty good numbers leading the 6th highest scoring team in the league, but the run Game is not helping out much and the defense has really struggled. 

The Steelers did not build upon their first win of the season losing their last Game where they only scored 14 points. They have lost both of their home Games this season and like the Falcons Pittsburgh has gotten good production from the quarterback, but the defense and run Game have not gotten it done. The one silver lining for the Steelers is that star running back Le’Veon Bell said he will return for Week 8, but will it be too late by then? 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Steelers are a 3-point home favorite with a total sitting at 57.5. 

This season the Falcons are 1-3 ATS with an O/U record of 3-1 and the Steelers are 1-3 ATS with an O/U record of 3-1. 

These teams have not met since the 2014 season. 

In the last six Games between these teams the underdog has covered the spread five times. 

In their last Game the Falcons lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 37-36 in a shootout. Atlanta had more yards in the Game (495-407) and did not turn the ball over, but still took the loss. Matt Ryan passed for 419 yards with three TD and no INT with Julio Jones (173 receiving yards), who leads the league in receiving yards, and Mohamed Sanu (111 receiving yards) each having big Games. Tevin Coleman rushed for 51 yards, but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. 

Ryan ranks 6th in the league in passing yards and has 10 TD and only two picks this season. Atlanta has lost their last two Games where leading rusher for the season Coleman has only totaled 84 rushing yards. In his last two Games he has averaged 3.6 yards per carry and 2.2 yards per carry, respectively, and that is not helping out much. 

The Steelers fell to 1-3 in their last Game falling to the Baltimore Ravens 26-14 on Sunday night. The oNCe proud and killer Pittsburgh defense is no longer and in the loss to the Ravens they GAve up 451 yards. The team has missed Bell, big time, as in the Ravens Game they only rushed for 19 yards and after a solid season debut James Conner has not done much in the last three Games. 

Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-SChuster give Big Ben two great targets, but he has had to do it all without a legit run Game. In the last Game he passed for 274 yards with a TD and an INT and it was the first Game this season he did not pass for at least 335 yards. At least Big Ben and the Pittsburgh lineup will be facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 25th in the league in pass and run defense. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Falcons

1-4 ATS in their last 5 road Games 

1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games

Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 road Games 

 

Steelers

1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games 

0-7 ATS in their last 7 home Games 

Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: While the Steelers have failed to cover the spread in their last seven home Games they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Games after a double-digit loss at home. That is the trend I am going with, as I have not lost faith in the Steelers. Big Ben will have a big Game and it will be pretty close, but Pittsburgh will win and cover at home.