Giants – Falcons NFL Pick with Analysis and Trends

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New York Giants

vs.

Atlanta Falcons 

Week 7

NFL Pick

10/22/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

New York Giants (1-5 SU 2-4 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-4 SU 2-4 ATS)

 

Not the best Monday Night matchup between the Giants and Falcons, who have a combined three wins. 

How much longer can the 1-5 Giants stick with Eli Manning? He has been bad this season and in the last two seasons New York has averaged only 16.5 ppg, which is dead last in the league in that span. New York is sitting on one win and only rank 24th in the league in points allowed per Game and 27th in ppg. Manning has a whopping six TD in six Games and the press and fans in the Big Apple are calling for a change.

While it is not that shocking the Giants have one win it is that the Falcons only have two wins after making the playoffs last season and the Super Bowl the year before. They snapped their three-Game losing streak in their last Game, but that was facing the Bucs, who are a sinking ship. Matt Ryan has not been bad, but he has not gotten help from the run Game and the D ranks 2nd to last in the league giving up an average of 32 ppg. 

At 5 Dimes sportsbook the Falcons are a 5.5-point home favorite with a total sitting at 54.5. 

This season the Giants are 2-4 ATS with an O/U record of 3-3 and the Falcons are 2-4 ATS with an O/U record of 5-1. 

The last time these two NFC teams met was in the 2015 season.  

In their last Game the Giants were at home and they dropped their 3rd in a row with a 34-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. They were outscored 24-6 in the first half and while they did not play well on 3rd down on both sides of the ball they had more overall yards in the Game and still lost badly. 

Manning passed for 284 yards, but did not have a TD and was picked oNCe and star WR Odell Beckham Jr. only had 44 receiving yards. One silver lining in the Game was the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 130 yards and led the G-Men with 99 receiving yards. He had not rushed for 100+ yards since the season opener and New York should get him the rock early and often in this primetime Game. 

The Falcons snapped their three-Game skid with a 34-029 win over the Buccaneers in their last Game. They GAve up 510 total yards in the Game, but they did force two turnovers while not committing any. Matt Ryan passed for 355 yards with three TD and no INT with Julio Jones racking up 144 receiving yards on 10 catches. ONCe again, Atlanta struggled to run the ball with only 70 rushing yards led by Tevin Coleman with only 35 yards on 10 carries. Coleman leads the team with 260 rushing yards, but in his last two Games has totaled 50 rushing yards, and in his last Four Games has failed to average over 3.6 yards per carry. 

One thing the Giants have going for them is that their strength on defense is their pass D, which ranks 10th in the league. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Giants

3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games facing a team with a losing record

2-5 ATS in their last 7 Monday Night Games

Under record of 9-4 in their last 13 Games 

 

Falcons  

2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games 

1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a losing record 

Over record of 5-0 in their last 5 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: Ok, so the Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the league and they cannot run the ball. Still, they are the pick in this Game at home. They have covered in five of their last six Monday Night Games and that trend will continue. Barkley may have another big Game facing the Falcons and their 24th ranked run defense, but he had a HUGE Game last week and the Giants were still beaten badly. Ryan will play well and lead Atlanta to their 2nd straight win and they will also cover the spread.